- Keith Law, ESPN Insider
There's more attention paid to this year's AL MVP ballot than any award I can remember, in part because it's seen as a fight between two camps -- those who espouse advanced statistical analysis of baseball and those who really wish Billy Beane had never written that book. Mike Trout should win the award this year, but Miguel Cabrera probably will, as the narrative of "Triple Crown + playoffs + clutchy" takes over, but make no mistake about it: The tide has already turned, and the anti-math voters who engage in sciamachy should accept the fact that their opponents have already left the ring.
The NL race, on the other hand, is just as interesting for its lack of clarity, with five or maybe six deserving candidates who aren't easily separated even using the advanced metrics on which I typically rely. My choice reflects some subjective criteria yet also includes a lot of uncertainty, and while I think Buster Posey wins this award, hearing another name called on Thursday night wouldn't surprise me at all.
Just to make sure everyone's clear, I did not vote on either MVP award this year. I did vote for the NL Rookie of the Year award and discussed that ballot on Monday. These ballots are just hypotheticals.
Keith Law explains why Mike Trout is the obvious AL MVP, but is less certain in the NL.