Can Kentucky upset Wichita State? 

March, 22, 2014
Mar 22
3:06
PM ET
Gregg Marshall and Fred VanVleet Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY SportsGregg Marshall, Fred VanVleet and Wichita State face a tough test against Kentucky.
Just typing the words feels strange. Wichita State will face Kentucky in a No. 1 verus No. 8 matchup Sunday. And Wichita State is the Giant. Kentucky is the Killer.

When we started forecasting upsets in 2006 using our statistical model, the purpose was to project the results of matchups just like this one. Only the roles were usually reversed. So nothing quite speaks to the changing landscape of college basketball like the situation we find ourselves in now, as we crunch numbers trying to determine whether Kentucky has the chops to upset the Shockers.

The way our model sees things, the Wildcats indeed have a shot at a bracket-breaking win. But just how strong? That part is surprising.