Team performance certainly plays some role in analyzing potential save totals, especially if you're in the business of selling high and buying low, which fantasy owners should be. Some big league teams are off to better starts than others, but if you think the second half won't be as kind, well, then the closer's value should take a hit. The following won't please the long-suffering fans of the Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates, and I certainly hope they remain contenders into mid-September, but we went through this last year as the closers for these teams were far less valuable after the All-Star break.

As such, it's perfectly reasonable to consider moving Chris Perez and Jason Grilli while they're hot, especially in Grilli's case; he's the major league leader in saves, a fickle category to begin with. Sure, it's possible that these two franchises separated by a leisurely car ride -- I wholeheartedly recommend checking out their home stadiums, as I did last summer on consecutive days -- will continue to play terrific baseball all through the summer, but what if they don't?


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So many eyes in the real and fantasy baseball world were on young Baltimore Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman Thursday night as he made his much-awaited big league debut in Canada against the Toronto Blue Jays. Gausman, the team’s No. 2 preseason pitching prospect behind Dylan Bundy, and No. 26 overall on colleague Keith Law’s board in February, got the call after a mere eight starts at Double-A Bowie (3.11 ERA, 49 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings) but was deemed ready. It also didn’t hurt that the Orioles desperately needed rotation help, and hey, a quick promotion worked with Manny Machado a year ago, didn’t it?

Gausman reminds me a bit of New York Mets top prospect Zack Wheeler in build (each is 6-foot-4, roughly 185 pounds) and stuff, as they seem to effortlessly hit the mid-90s on their fastball and touch 98 mph, and have the nasty offspeed stuff to thrive as well. Gausman looked strong through three innings against the Blue Jays, permitting two hits and missing bats, but his command wasn’t perfect. Then things fell apart in the fourth inning as Jays hitters squared him up. Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia doubled to lead to two runs, and in the fifth inning two more runs scored when Arencibia followed a Lind single with a long home run. Arencibia does have 11 home runs, after all, but also an incomprehensible two walks and 55 strikeouts in 165 at-bats. Gausman didn’t need to challenge him, but his command should improve and he’ll get wiser with experience.

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Kevin Gausman
AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette Kevin Gausman struggled with command at times in his debut, but his talent is obvious.
That was Gausman’s night, a mixed bag of sorts and 89 pitches, 58 of them for strikes. Gausman certainly didn’t look overwhelmed on a night when he had every reason to be. The fastball velocity is one thing, but his changeup is so tremendous he’ll pile on the strikeouts. The slider might be a bit of a work in progress, but the Orioles are doing the right thing. There’s next to no upside with Jair Jurrjens or Steve Johnson, and this Freddy Garcia situation is sub-optimal. Gausman’s final line doesn’t seem special, but you had to see how it happened. Don’t be the fantasy owner that cuts him so quickly; Gausman is perhaps the most-added pitcher over the past 48 hours, but keep the 22-year-old and give him another month of starts to see what he does. This isn’t like Tony Cingrani of the Cincinnati Reds, when eventual demotion was expected; Gausman is a better prospect, and the Orioles don’t possess great rotation depth. His next outing is scheduled to be a short bus ride south against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, and then perhaps the following Sunday at home against Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers. OK, so the Tigers game is potentially scary for anyone, but the Nationals matchup, go for it! Only two teams have scored fewer runs.


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One of the main reasons it was easy to be skeptical about whether Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra would be able to continue his exceptional season was the competition on his own team. After all, the Diamondbacks figured to use lefty hitting slugger Jason Kubel in left field, while rookie Adam Eaton would get on base and run and handle center field, and Cody Ross wasn’t given an exorbitant three-year contract to merely pinch hit. However, as May winds down none of Arizona's expected starting outfielders are playing a significant role for the team, if any at all, and Parra keeps on producing.

In fact, Parra is doing so well that he’s actually tied for second in all of baseball in WAR (wins above replacement), behind only Cincinnati Reds first baseman/walk machine Joey Votto, and that order was reversed entering Wednesday. Triple Crown threat Miguel Cabrera, incidentally, is tied for fifth, a shade behind Parra, who garners significant value from excellent defense. From a pure fantasy aspect, Parra has been a nice surprise, going from undrafted in most leagues to close to top-20 outfielder status.

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Gerardo Parra
Matt Kartozian/USA TODAY Sports Gerardo Parra is best known for his defense, but his offense has come around so far this year.


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A week ago, Josh Rutledge of the Colorado Rockies was among the top 10 second basemen on ESPN's Player Rater. Now he's on his way to Triple-A Colorado Springs. Talk about a swift fall from grace!

Rutledge, a 23rd-rounder, on average, in ESPN live drafts still ranks above such players as Adrian Gonzalez, Billy Butler, Yoenis Cespedes, Starlin Castro and Michael Bourn on the Player Rater, and remains on pace for 18 home runs, 18 stolen bases and 92 runs scored. However, his lack of plate discipline and defensive struggles earned him the demotion. It's a shame, too, because quite a few fantasy owners are going to need a replacement; Rutledge began Wednesday owned in 95 percent of ESPN standard leagues (that number was already down to 85 percent as of Thursday morning). Rutledge's demotion likely will be a short-term one, but I wasn't high on Rutledge to begin with because he just refuses to embrace the art of drawing even a modest number of free passes. Between Double-A Tulsa and the Rockies last season, he drew 23 walks in 670 plate appearances.
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DJ Lemahieu
Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY SportsThe defensively superior DJ LeMahieu is expected to start at second base for the Rockies for now.


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Relying on batting average drains such as Chicago White Sox first baseman Adam Dunn and Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla can be painful for any fantasy owner, but when they're hitting for power -- like they were Monday night -- they can still help a team. On Tuesday, they returned to their hitless ways, combining to go an evenly distributed 0-for-8 with four strikeouts. I admit to trying to ignore players like these on draft day, but by mid-May most fantasy owners have a better idea what type of offensive teams they possess, making it clearer if there's a need to add flawed power options, and if owning a .200 hitter is feasible.
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Adam Dunn
AP Photo/Paul Beaty Adam Dunn currently ranks 228th on the ESPN Player Rater.

Dunn smacked his 11th home run Monday, doing so with a first-inning, three-run blast off lefty Jon Lester. He's hitting a lame .168 and actually has more home runs than singles so far. That is tough to do, but then again, he's not paid to hit singles. What's interesting about Dunn is that entering Tuesday, five of his home runs had come in the past week, along with 13 RBIs, reassuring owners that last year's 41-homer season appears very much real. The year before, Dunn hit only 11 home runs. Will Dunn hit 30 more home runs this season? It's certainly possible, perhaps more likely than him hitting .200 the rest of the way. Regardless, he's approaching inclusion on ESPN's most-added list because owners are so desperate for power that they'll take it at any price.


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Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters celebrated his 27th birthday Tuesday with another hitless performance in four at-bats, dropping his season batting average to .223, but it’s hard to tell if fantasy owners have noticed. Wieters was supposed to be one of the top fantasy catchers this season, and perhaps he will get there, but it’s not going to happen with that batting average.

Wieters seems to have earned plenty of trust, as he remains one of seven catchers owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, but all the others are hitting considerably better. Wieters was, after all, the fourth catcher chosen in ESPN live drafts and in the same sixth round as Nos. 2 and 3 Yadier Molina and Joe Mauer, but those guys are contending for batting titles, not hitting below their weight. Wieters has more consistent power potential than those fellows, but he also hit .249 two of the past three seasons, so it is reasonable to wonder if this start is the new, real thing.

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Matt Wieters
Joy R. Absalon/USA TODAY Sports Matt Wieters enters Wednesday's action 11th among catchers on the Player Rater.


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The past two seasons, Washington Nationals middle infielder Danny Espinosa had been an attractive fantasy option, totaling 38 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Sure, he never was particularly helpful in the batting average category, but Espinosa played in 158 and 160 games in 2011 and 2012, respectively, and it was more than reasonable to target him in the mid- to later rounds this season. Espinosa finished the 2012 season 21st among middle infielders on the Player Rater and was drafted, on average, in the 14th round of ESPN live drafts.

However, with seven weeks of the season complete, it seems many owners have seen enough. Espinosa is down to 40 percent owned, as his batting average slumps to .163.

It's probably not a coincidence that his batting average is down so much as he attempts to play through a torn rotator cuff in his left shoulder. He originally hurt the shoulder in September and struggled the final weeks of 2012. Well, little has changed. While Espinosa sat Monday night in San Francisco for ordinary Stephen Lombardozzi, the Nationals were shut out for the sixth time this season and certainly want their switch-hitting starter and defensive asset to improve.

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Rumors that Los Angeles Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly could be out of work soon make little sense, since he’s not the one who built his flawed yet expensive team, rife with injuries, poor play and a lack of depth. On Monday night in Milwaukee, the Dodgers won 3-1, as ace lefty Clayton Kershaw went the distance to earn his fifth win, but the bigger story was how the team scored its runs, because only the feeble Miami Marlins are doing so at a lesser pace than Mattingly’s last-place bunch.

Outfielders Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier provided the run support Monday, Kemp with a solo home run and Ethier with one of his own, as well as a run-scoring triple to score Kemp, who had walked. Fantasy owners should remain committed to Kemp, the No. 6 overall pick in average live drafts, but even ESPN’s fantasy rankers (myself included) didn’t show quite the faith of the preseason expectations, dropping him to 18th overall. Kemp’s home run was merely his second of the season, and first in 97 plate appearances, a career-long drought. Is it a slump, an injury, his dating life? Who knows, but surely the fantasy world and Dodgers fans expected an MVP candidate, not fewer home runs than teammate Scott Van Slyke.

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AP Photo/Morry Gash Reasons to celebrate have been few and far between for Matt Kemp this season.

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While Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips has maintained strong fantasy value this season, he’s done so with some unusual early-season statistics, and according to him, he has manager Dusty Baker to thank and blame for that.

Through seven weeks, Phillips, annually a consistent producer in each of the five standard fantasy hitting categories, has been producing quite a bit more in a few of those stats, and less of another, and apparently it’s by choice. Bumped to the cleanup spot in the batting order shortly after teammate Ryan Ludwick was injured on Opening Day, Phillips is piling on the runs batted in. He loves them, too, and wants to lead the league. I caught up with Phillips at Citizens Bank Park Saturday night after his team waxed the Philadelphia Phillies 10-0, and he discussed how his plate approach is so much different because of the spot where Baker bats him.

“My job now is to get RBI -- it’s my No. 1 thing,” said Phillips, who is getting so many of them that he’s one off the NL lead and remains on pace for 133 of them. “That’s my goal, to get 100. When I hit fourth, that’s my job. I don’t really worry about my batting average or my on-base percentage -- it’s just getting the guy in [to score]. Having that approach has been working so far. I’m a free swinger. I like hitting fourth. It’s fun. Your job is to do one job.”

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The many fantasy owners and Texas Rangers fans who have been waiting all season for the promotion of super-prospect Jurickson Profar finally got their wish Sunday night: He got the call when Ian Kinsler was placed on the DL. But it's premature to assume he'll be up the rest of the season, perhaps even in a month, and that seriously dilutes his 2013 fantasy value. Just because Mike Trout and Bryce Harper made history in 2012 doesn't mean Profar will this season. Hey, I think Profar should be a regular player in the big leagues now, and I'd rank him as a borderline top-10 fantasy second baseman if I thought 400 at-bats were pending, because he has the power and speed to make a difference. It's just unlikely that he'll get that chance, so expectations should be guarded.

After all, Kinsler didn't even get to hit this weekend, yet he remains one of fantasy's top five second basemen, and he just missed an overall top-20 spot in our mid-May ranks. He's likely not moving to first base either, considering that Mitch Moreland has been just about the hottest hitter in all of baseball this month, including seven home runs already.
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Ian Kinsler
Tim Heitman/US Presswire Ian Kinsler, who was placed on the DL Sunday night, currently ranks 44th among all hitters on the Player Rater.


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The last time Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ryan Madson threw a pitch in a big league regular season game was the last Wednesday of September 2011, in the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves. Madson retired Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman without incident, and on 14 pitches. Since then Madson has been paid by the Cincinnati Reds and Angels, but he hasn’t logged an inning for either squad. It’s going to be a bit longer before he does.

Madson claims he’s ready for action this weekend as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery performed more than a year ago, but instead he’s been sent to Triple-A Salt Lake City to begin a rehab assignment originally announced as scheduled for several weeks. It’s tough to tell how long Madson will be there, but his fastball velocity is reportedly down around 91-92 mph, and the Angels want to be thorough. Remember, back in February, the Angels were talking about Madson being ready for the start of the season. That did not happen.
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Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY SportsRyan Madson saved 32 games for the Phillies in 2011 but hasn't pitched in the majors since.

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What to do about Matt Cain? 

May, 17, 2013
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By the second inning of Thursday night’s game between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, the concerned, panicked and, let’s face it, angry tweets about right-hander Matt Cain started flowing in consistently. Cain allowed three home runs early in what ended up as a victory in Coors Field, as Todd Helton, Nolan Arenado and Wilin Rosario each took him deep. But still, I’m neither concerned, panicked nor angry, despite the fact Cain leads the big leagues in home runs permitted with 13.

It’s dangerous to make major decisions from start to start with reliable pitchers who were perhaps originally drafted as a team’s ace. Yes, Cain had some hiccups in April, posting a 6.49 ERA and serving up nine home runs in six winless starts, though his reasonable 1.29 WHIP and strong strikeout rate alleviated worry for me. In two May outings before Thursday, Cain righted the ship, so to speak, winning twice and permitting eight hits and one long ball in 15 1/3 innings. So we weren’t particularly worried entering Thursday, but an outing at Coors Field changes that again? Fantasy can be a roller coaster, but outings in Denver should be considered part of a different ride.
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Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesMatt Cain has allowed more than four earned runs in a game three times already this season.

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While it seems as if everyone acknowledges Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout and Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper as the best young players in baseball, it sure looks as though the Baltimore Orioles have themselves a special young talent as well in third baseman Manny Machado. The 20-year-old had four more hits Wednesday, the fourth time in a week he delivered three or more, and raised his season batting average to .343, right up there among the league leaders.

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Manny Machado
Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports Manny Machado has more than lived up to the hype so far this season.

I can’t admit I expected Machado, only a few months older than Harper, to do quite this well, but after six weeks of standout play I’m certainly on the proverbial bandwagon, a fact shown by my generous mid-May ranking. (Click here for the staff rankings!) I admit to being surprised my colleagues aren’t completely on board; after all, in addition to the lofty batting average, Machado is on pace for 20 home runs, 97 RBIs and 16 stolen bases. Orioles manager Buck Showalter, who knows a thing or two, clearly trusted Machado when he exalted him to the No. 2 lineup spot, and fantasy owners should trust him, too. He is now my No. 5 third baseman, and yes, his outstanding play has pushed him into the dynasty league discussion with Trout and Harper. We should stop discussing the fact he’s not playing shortstop and realize he is a clear stud regardless.


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Bits: Who replaces David Price? 

May, 16, 2013
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Tampa Bay Rays left-hander David Price left his Wednesday outing prematurely with a triceps injury. Of course it stinks, and of course we're all concerned about how much time he's going to miss, but then again, now a little adventure can commence, too. It happened with the Philadelphia Phillies a few weeks ago when the Roy Halladay implosions were backed up by obvious injury. Oh, who will replace him? What if it's the next Clayton Kershaw! I'd better sign Adam Morgan now! Fantasy owners just love this stuff. Sure, Price was a top-10 starting pitcher on draft day, the defending AL Cy Young Award winner and we all love him … but step aside because we want to see what Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi can do!

I'm only being partly facetious, you know. As of Thursday morning, the update on Price, who was pummeled while he was out there against the Boston Red Sox and saw his ERA rise back over 5.00 again, was that he suffered a strained left triceps. The pessimist in all of us immediately thinks Tommy John surgery is pending and we won't see Price again until June 2014, but it really could be just a missed start or two, perhaps a short disabled list stint. It should go without saying, but don't cut Price today in any leagues. If he's visiting Dr. James Andrews tomorrow, however, well, all moves are fair game. Honestly though, I was buying low on Price a week ago, and I'm still doing so. Injury often explains poor performance, so if Price doesn't start again until mid-June, you definitely buy in. And this is not Halladay.

But hey, what about Archer and Odorizzi and the other outstanding young fireballing hurlers on the Triple-A Durham staff? The Phillies promoted right-hander Jonathan Pettibone recently, and he's no star, but he is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA, and that's better than a lot of No. 6 fantasy starters. What the Durham Bulls are using is better than that: potential aces in Archer, right-hander Alex Colome and lefty Alex Torres, and Odorizzi tossed seven no-hit innings at Pawtucket a few outings ago. The first thing I look for when a pitcher is unlikely to make his next start is who started for the Triple-A club that same night of injury/premature exit. Organizations are all about keeping the pitchers on schedule and want to avoid disrupting routine. Odorizzi twirled in Rochester on Wednesday night, but it went poorly, as he permitted six runs, including three home runs, over 5 1/3 innings.

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What interests me most about the return of New York Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson to the lineup is not, oddly enough, the two-time 40-home run, 100-RBI player himself. Granderson is going to play regularly. He’s going to hit home runs and strike out an awful lot, none of it surprising eager fantasy owners, and hopefully he’ll steal enough bases to really impact that category, as well. Regardless, I had no qualms about activating him right away for his season debut Tuesday night, even against the great King Felix Hernandez, which resulted in little help for fantasy owners. At least he’s back.
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Curtis Granderson
Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports Curtis Granderson is the first of the Yankees' big hitters who started the season on the disabled list to return to action.

Actually, what I want to see is how Yankees skipper Joe Girardi -- and honestly, looking at that shell of a daily lineup it’s hard to believe this team is in first place, so credit where it’s due -- handles his future lineups now that the Grandy man is back, because that’s going to affect quite a few fantasy owners, as well. The Yankees still have precious little on the left side of their infield until Derek Jeter and Kevin Youkilis return, since their four starting-caliber (on the surface) outfielders can’t play there. Granderson, Vernon Wells, Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki do appear worthy of regular at-bats, and then there’s the lefty-hitting designated hitter, Travis Hafner, with a higher OPS than every Yankee except second baseman Robinson Cano, and he led him entering Tuesday night. What will Girardi do?


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