Texas Longhorns: Mike Gundy

Big 12 media days takeaways

July, 23, 2014
Jul 23
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DALLAS -- Big 12 media days have come and gone. Some of the storylines (Dairy Queen, fake watches) were silly. Others were far more serious. Here are some of the takeaways from this year’s edition of media days:

Baylor has a chip on its shoulder: Despite winning the Big 12 last season and returning the Big 12 offensive player of the year in quarterback Bryce Petty, Baylor was voted second in the conference’s preseason poll behind Oklahoma. The Bears clearly felt a bit disrespected while in Dallas this week. "That comes with being Baylor," defensive end Shawn Oakman said. "We're gonna be great one day and y'all are gonna notice." The Bears were pretty great last season, stomping the Sooners 41-12 on the way to their first Big 12 title. "That game from OU last year, that should have showed you that that product was nowhere near as good as the product that Baylor was putting on the field," Oakman said. "The execution, the players from each and every position ... You could tell we were on a different level from OU." Still getting picked to finish behind Oklahoma has given the Bears extra fuel for this season. "In our minds, we’re still underdogs," Oakman said. "We play with a chip on our shoulder. You only get the respect if you earn it."

Stoops is loose as a goose: The loosest coach at Big 12 media days might have been Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. He was cracking jokes, photo-bombing his wife’s TV interview (she was there for a Mary Kay convention) and taking a break between interview sessions to grab a strawberry smoothie. He even chided Alabama coach Nick Saban for suggesting the Crimson Tide didn’t care about being in the Sugar Bowl. "So if I’m not in a national championship game, that means I’ve got a built-in excuse?" Stoops said. Such bravado could be a sign that Stoops thinks he has a pretty good team. With Trevor Knight at quarterback and nine starters back defensively, it’s not hard to see why.

TCU has a big problem: Though they had already left, the Horned Frogs were the story the second day of Big 12 media days. Defensive end Devonte Fields, who last week was voted the league's preseason defensive player of the year, was accused of pulling a gun on his ex-girlfriend. TCU acted quickly after the news surfaced, claiming it had "separated" from Fields. If any part of the allegations levied against Fields are true, it’s difficult to see him ever playing another game in the Big 12. That is a big loss for the league. And an even bigger one for TCU, which is attempting to bounce back from one of its worst seasons in the Gary Patterson era.

Strong believes in Ash: The biggest question mark in Charlie Strong’s first season as coach at Texas is quarterback. More specifically, quarterback David Ash. But even though Ash missed virtually all of last season with concussion issues, then the spring with a fractured foot, Strong said he was impressed with Ash when watching old game film. "When Ash is healthy, he played very well," Strong said. All signs point to Ash being the starter when the Longhorns open the season. Whether he can be consistent and be healthy could go a long way in dictating how Strong’s first season goes, too.

Bowlsby does not believe in the NCAA: According to Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, cheating pays. And the enforcement wing of the NCAA is broken. Bowlsby painted a bleak future for the NCAA, also predicting that Olympic sports could be in trouble down the line. "If you like intercollegiate athletics the way it is, you're going to hate it going forward," he said. "There's a lot of change coming." Because of its popularity, football will always be fine. But with lawsuits and athletic department expenses about to rise dramatically, Bowlsby thinks something will have to give.

Everyone’s mind is on the playoff, even if all minds don’t quite get it: The inaugural College Football Playoff was one of the big topics of conversation this week. The Big 12 coaches all believe the league is positioned strongly for inclusion, thanks to a robust nonconference slate of games and a nine-game conference schedule. Many players, however, weren’t well-informed about how the playoff will work. One didn’t know how many teams would be in it. Another thought every conference champ automatically advanced to it. And still another had no idea just how the playoff would be picked. The playoff is going to be an adjustment for college football fans. There is going to be an adjustment for the players, too.

Trickett was always the guy: According to West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen, Clint Trickett was always going to be this season’s starting quarterback. It was just a matter of him getting cleared medically. "We wanted him to be the guy," Holgorsen said. "We had to wait and see how he did coming off the shoulder surgery." Holgorsen said there was little the other West Virginia quarterbacks could have done this spring to unseat Trickett, who sat out while recovering from the shoulder injury. "He was the best option we had this year, he was the best option we had last year," Holgorsen said. "Once I was pleased with what I saw, it was a no-brainer to me."

Hill will get the ball a lot: Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy has had some talented offensive players over the years. But Gundy said it has been a long time since the Cowboys had a playmaker like juco running back Tyreek Hill. "He's very fast," said Gundy, comparing him to former West Virginia standout Tavon Austin. "He gets [past] that first level [of the defense] and no one is caching him." Gundy wants Hill to touch the ball at least 20 times a game. Whether he’s at running back or lined up in the slot, Hill is going to be the focal point of the Oklahoma State attack.

Snyder is still the man: Kansas State coach Bill Snyder is 74 years old, just two years younger than former Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer, who popped by media days Monday night. But Snyder is still coaching strong, with a team that was voted third in the preseason poll behind co-favorites Oklahoma and Baylor. Apparently everyone should eat only one meal a day.
DALLAS -- Winning football games holds top billing in most cases, but when discussing the most important objective to college football coaches, a great recruiting class is always high on the totem pole.

The Big 12 media days on Monday and Tuesday gave coaches a chance to share their opinions on their teams, their competitors and the future of college football. It also allowed each coach to talk about the positives and negatives of recruiting.

Coaches and players alike can make a name for themselves on third down. Receivers earn reputations for their ability to move the chains, signal-callers separate themselves as clutch performers and coaches’ creative play calling rises to the forefront during those key moments.

A closer look at the production of Big 12 offenses and defenses on third down can provide a glimpse at how champions are made and reveal areas of improvement heading into the 2014 season.

The stats, courtesy of ESPN Stats and Information, are from conference games only during the past two seasons in an effort to provide a fair baseline for every team. The teams are listed alphabetically with third-down conversion rate, opponent third-down conversion rate, yards per play on 3rd-and-6 or more and yards per play allowed on 3rd-and-6 or more serving as the four key categories to show production on third down, or lack thereof.

Some thoughts and notes:

  • Kansas State leads the Big 12 in third-down conversion percentage in the past two seasons, and it’s no major surprise to see the Wildcats sitting atop the conference, as Bill Snyder’s Wildcats are efficient and productive. Playing three different quarterbacks -- Collin Klein, Jake Waters and Daniel Sams -- during this stretch, K-State has the Big 12’s top raw QBR on third down (85) in this span. However, Waters’ 57 raw QBR on third down was the lowest of the trio. He’s expected to be KSU’s starter this fall and will need to play better on third down if the Wildcats hope to make a Big 12 title run.
  • Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech, the only other teams joining KSU with better than 40 percent conversions on third down, combined with the Wildcats to win 92 games during the past two seasons. Third-down success on offense and overall success seem to go hand in hand.
  • [+] EnlargeBill Snyder
    AP Photo/Matt YorkBill Snyder's Kansas State teams have excelled on third down, a big reason for the Wildcats' recent success.
    Iowa State, TCU and Kansas, the bottom three teams in third-down conversion percentage, will enter 2014 with new offensive coordinators, underscoring the importance of third-down success.
  • TCU’s defense was exceptional on third down, leading the conference with a 31.9 percent opponent third-down conversion percentage. If the Horned Frogs continue that production, and the offense improves its 31.3 third-down conversion rate, TCU could return to a bowl in 2014. New coordinators Sonny Cumbie and Doug Meacham are tasked with jump-starting the Horned Frogs offense.
  • Oklahoma State allowed just 34.7 percent opponent third-down conversion rate, joining TCU as the lone Big 12 schools under 35 percent in that category. An underrated defense is one reason Mike Gundy's squad won 18 games while playing musical chairs at the quarterback position during the past two seasons.
  • Baylor and Kansas State are in the bottom half of the Big 12 in opponent third-down conversion rate over the past two seasons, a sign that stellar defense on third down is not a requirement to win the Big 12 title. KSU was sixth at 40.5 percent, Baylor was ninth at 44.2 percent. The Wildcats won the conference title in 2012, Baylor won in 2013.
  • West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas are the teams in the bottom half of the conference in third-down conversion rate and opponent third-down conversion rate. Those three teams combined to win 12 conference games in the past two seasons.
  • Baylor led the Big 12 in yards per play on 3rd-and-6 or more with a 6.97 ypp average. The Bears' explosive offense was joined by Oklahoma (6.96), Texas (6.89) and West Virginia (6.43) as the lone teams to average at least six yards per play in that scenario.
  • Texas Tech, at 4.68 yards per play, is surprisingly low in this scenario, rating ninth in the conference . The Red Raiders’ offense is consistently among the Big 12’s best but this is a clear area of improvement for Kliff Kingsbury’s squad.
  • OSU sits atop the conference at 3.98 yards per play allowed on 3rd-and-6 or more, another sign of how underrated its defense has been over the past two seasons.
  • KSU is the only other team that allowed less than five yards (4.23) in that scenario and is the only team in the top half of the Big 12 in yards per play and yards per play allowed in that scenario. Third-down success, on both sides of the ball, was a big part of KSU’s ability to consistently win (and surprise) during the past two seasons.
It’s never too early to start talking about bowl destinations.

There is no clear favorite in the Big 12 heading into the 2014 season and several teams could finish among the top three in the conference or fall into the bottom half of the league.

ESPN.com's Brett McMurphy and Mark Schlabach took a shot at projecting the 2014 bowl games during their "way-too-early" projections earlier this week. As a reminder, with the College Football Playoff set to debut this fall, here's a closer look at the bowl selection process in 2014.

Here’s a look at the Big 12 in those way-too-early bowl projections.

Brett McMurphy

Russell Athletic: Kansas State vs. Clemson
Buffalo Wild Wings: Oregon State vs. TCU
Liberty: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
Texas: Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Alamo: Texas vs. UCLA
Cotton: Baylor vs. Georgia
Sugar: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Mark Schlabach

Russell Athletic: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Buffalo Wild Wings: Oregon State vs. TCU
Liberty: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
Texas: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Alamo: Kansas State vs. UCLA
Peach: Georgia vs. Baylor
Cotton: Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati

A few thoughts:
  • McMurphy has Oklahoma earning a College Football Playoff berth with their rematch against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. That wouldn’t be a major surprise for a Sooners squad that returns a strong and talented defense to pair with sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight.
  • Baylor and Oklahoma, the two favorites to win the conference, are projected in appearances in the Cotton, Peach and Sugar bowls. McMurphy and Schlabach expect strong years, again, from the Big 12’s representatives in the final BCS bowl games in 2013.
  • McMurphy and Schlabach each have seven Big 12 teams going bowling but the landing spots differ quite a bit, a sign of the wide-open nature of the conference this fall after the two favorites, Baylor and Oklahoma.
  • TCU’s appearance in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl is the lone agreement from the duo. With its strong defense, the Horned Frogs simply need more efficiency on offense to return to a bowl game this fall. TCU’s defense is too strong to expect a second-straight bowl less campaign.
  • Kansas State, along with Texas, provided the biggest disagreement among the two, with Schlabach expecting the Wildcats to be among the conference’s top three teams while McMurphy has Bill Snyder’s squad finishing in the bottom half of the conference. With plenty of question marks on the roster, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Wildcats fall into the bottom half of the Big 12, but quarterback Jake Waters gives KSU something the majority of the league is still searching for as a proven veteran quarterback.
  • UT is essentially interchangeable with the Wildcats with Charlie Strong’s first season in Austin projected to end in a bowl game by the duo. McMurphy projects UT among the top half of the Big 12 and Schlabach expects Strong’s influence to take a little longer to pay off during a bottom-half finish for the Longhorns.
  • Mike Gundy’s program is, understandably, expected to take a step backward after playing for a Big 12 title on the final day of the 2013 season. Projections into the Texas and Liberty bowls would represent a solid mid-conference finish for young team trying to replace several seniors.
  • Texas Tech isn't projected to make a major jump up the standings in Kliff Kingsbury's second season in Lubbock. Question marks along all three levels of the Red Raiders' defense is the likely culprit.
  • Neither McMurphy nor Schlabach projects West Virginia, Iowa State or Kansas to make a bowl appearance. Of those squads, the talent-laden Mountaineers could have the best chance of proving the duo wrong.

Big 12 lunchtime links

April, 29, 2014
Apr 29
12:00
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I don't know if there's a right answer to this question.
We've been doing something different with Friday's Big 12 mailbag. From now on, we'll be including Twitter questions with the regular mailbag submissions. To submit a mailbag entry via Twitter, simply include the hashtag #big12mailbag. You also still can send in questions the traditional way here, too.

To the 'bag...
Trotter: So far, Oklahoma State running back/receiver Tyreek Hill, TCU safety Kenny Iloka and Kansas receiver Nick Harwell. With his speed, Hill could lead the league in all-purpose yards. Iloka is going to be a key piece in the best secondary in the Big 12. And Harwell should finally give the Jayhawks that go-to receiver they haven’t had since Dezmon Briscoe.

Trotter: The Cyclones get K-State in Ames the second week of the season, which could be a dangerous game for the Wildcats, who might get caught looking ahead to that Thursday night clash with Auburn. Another team that must pay heed is Oklahoma. The Sooners go to Iowa State the week before hosting Baylor in a game that could determine the Big 12 crown. OU can't afford to be looking ahead, either.

Trotter: I'm going to set it at 1 1/2, and I think I would actually bet the over. The Jayhawks are going to be better this season, and quite possibly good enough to steal two conference wins.

Trotter: Right now, the Red Raiders have one on campus, and that's well below the national average. I don't see an issue. The way Davis Webb has improved in the last five months, he's going to be the guy the next three seasons barring something unforeseen. That would still give Jarrett Stidham three seasons of eligibility to be the starter, if he redshirted next year. Patrick Mahomes will get this chances, too. Seems like what TTU is going to do is be really good at quarterback the next six years.

Trotter: I have no inside info here, but if the game is at 11 a.m. again, hit me up in the fall and I'll share with you my shortcut to the Texas State Fair.

Trotter: It was a move that had to be made. Sams is too talented to be standing on the sidelines. He's not going to instantly become an All-Big 12 receiver. But if they can devise ways to get Sams the ball in space, the move could work out well. I see Sams getting a lot of his touches through flares, screens, reverses and maybe a handoff or Wildcat formation here or there. If they can get Sams the ball 10 times a game, that will only help the K-State offense. Think Trevone Boykin in TCU's offense late last year. That's how I see Sams best fitting in.

Trotter: Playing? Yes. Starting? No. I think Williams ultimately favors one side of the ball. The most likely scenario is he still keeps a major role at running back, then gives coordinator Matt Wallerstedt 15-20 plays at outside linebacker, which is more than I would have predicted at the beginning of the spring. Williams can really help the defense, but not at the expense of playing 130 snaps.

Trotter: Bob Stoops, Art Briles, Mike Gundy, Bill Snyder and Gary Patterson have ironclad job security. Paul Rhoads and Kliff Kingsbury have nothing to worry about, either, and Charlie Strong is too new to have to worry (though in Austin, that could change fast). That leaves Charlie Weis and Dana Holgorsen, whose seats are warmest among Big 12 coaches. I think Weis just has to show improvement this season. He can't go 0-12. Holgorsen is the most interesting to watch. Considering the brutal schedule, it's very possible West Virginia is better than last year and still goes 5-7, which might not be enough for Holgorsen to keep his job. But if the Mountaineers go, say, 7-5 against that slate, then I would think Holgorsen would be deserving of another year. West Virginia has been recruiting at an impressive clip, and the schedule will line up more favorably in 2015.


jrodxc07 in Dallas writes: Jake, love the blog, nice work sir. I think you could make a case for incoming Baylor receiver K.D. Cannon as Offensive Newcomer of the Year. Can you explain why you left him off your list?

Trotter: Appreciate it, sir. Cannon was actually on the poll for Offensive Freshman of the Year two weeks ago. The newcomer poll was for transfers, which is why you didn't see him there.


I only care about the Big 12 writes: Please go ahead and give us your way-too early power rankings? That is, if you haven't already...

Trotter: I actually released a power poll in January that went this way: OU, Baylor, K-State, Texas, Oklahoma State, Tech, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas. I'll be updating it, though, after spring ball concludes.

Athlon ranks the Big 12 coaches

April, 10, 2014
Apr 10
4:00
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Athlon Sports has always been big on lists. And this week, Athlon’s Steven Lassan ranked all 128 FBS coaches. He also pulled out the top 10 Big 12 coaches.

As a disclaimer, this is NOT our list. This is Athlon’s. So forward all hate tweets and emails to them. Not me. I already get enough.

[+] Enlarge Art Briles
Ron Jenkins/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/MCT/Getty ImagesArt Briles' status has grown in the eyes of Athlon.
Without further ado:

1. Bob Stoops, Oklahoma

2. Art Briles, Baylor

3. Bill Snyder, Kansas State

4. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

5. Gary Patterson, TCU

6. Charlie Strong, Texas

7. Paul Rhoads, Iowa State

8. Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech

9. Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia

10. Charlie Weis, Kansas

Some observations:

  • Athlon prefers coaches who win conference championships. Briles, Snyder, Gundy and Stoops, the top four on this list, have won the past four Big 12 titles.
  • I went back and checked and noticed some interesting changes. Snyder was No. 1 in 2013, but dropped two spots this year (why, I’m not sure; K-State did win six of seven to close out the season). Mack Brown was No. 6 -- the same slot that Strong opened up here. Kingsbury moved up only one spot after going 8-5 in his first season.
  • In the eyes of Athlon, Patterson’s stock is falling. He was the No. 2 coach going into his first year in the Big 12 and was ranked third going into last season. On the flip side, Briles has made the biggest rise in the last two years, going from sixth to second after winning the Big 12 last season.
  • Athlon actually had Snyder fifth in 2012, which is hard to believe. We’re talking about one of the best coaches of all-time, right?
  • As you can see, I have a bigger beef with the 2012 and 2013 rankings than the 2014 one.
  • Kingsbury has the potential to ascend the most of anyone on this list. I don’t know that the No. 8 spot is completely unfair, considering he’s only been a head coach one season. But if he can turn Texas Tech into a Big 12 contender on a quasi-regular basis, he could jump several spots.
  • This is obviously not an easy list to compile. How do you weigh what Briles has done the last five years against what Snyder has the last 25? It’s all a matter of subjectivity.
There was a time when the notion of not holding a spring game was uncommon.

Fans and recruits could circle the date on their calendars, young players and new coaches saw it as the first opportunity to make a lasting impression.

[+] EnlargeCharles Tapper
AP Photo/Sue OgrockiOklahoma is one of fewer and fewer Big 12 teams that will hold a full-fledged spring game.
More recently, however, the value of the spring game has been challenged with various coaches pondering if a traditional spring game is the most efficient use of time as they aim to prepare their rosters.

This spring, Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy raised eyebrows when the Cowboys announced their “Orange Blitz” open practice session would replace their traditional Orange-White spring game. TCU has rarely held a traditional spring game under Gary Patterson, with the Horned Frogs preferring intra-squad scrimmages.

Patterson values the opportunity to watch other team’s spring games on television but refuses to give other coaches that advantage over his team and doesn’t view the event as essential for the Horned Frogs program. TCU has not finalized its plan for this spring, but a traditional spring game seems unlikely.

Although his program normally holds an event, OSU opened the spring with a young, battered roster, which was the main reason for Gundy’s decision to shun a spring game this year. For Gundy, engaging fans with a spring game had to take a backseat to the overall development of the young players in the program during the 15 practices the Cowboys will hold in March and April.

“At some point I have to make a decision based on what's best for our team first and then our fans and people that follow us second,” Gundy said earlier this week.

Other Big 12 coaches point to health concerns as obstacles to holding a traditional spring game featuring two separate squads.

“Spring games are always a trying time due to depth at certain positions,” said Kansas coach Charlie Weis, who will hold KU’s spring game on April 12. “Concern for injuries is always an issue, not being able to field two entire competitive teams is a problem.”

Postponing the spring game can become a real option, particularly after losing a large class of seniors off the roster thus crippling the overall depth of the program until February signees arrive in the summer. Quarterbacks end up switching teams in the middle of the game, a lack of available linemen waters down the quality of the action and fears of a season-changing injury can cloud these spring finales.

“Everyone says, ‘Well I would love to have a draft and have my guys go on each side of the ball,’” Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said. “You can’t, you don’t have the personnel. Sometimes you have so many injuries or you may be thin that you can’t afford to have a spring game and get somebody hurt. Some other years, when we are a little bit down, I don’t want to take a chance on it. It is all great until someone gets hurt and blows a knee out, and then it is, ‘Why did I do that?’”

The Sooners are one of the Big 12 programs that are all-in on the spring game, selling tickets to the event, televising the action and creating a game-like atmosphere at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. But even OU dumbs down the efficiency of the actual football in the game, sitting starters and simplifying schemesto avoid lurkers, such as Patterson, who are aiming to gain useful tidbits on the Sooners that they can use in the fall.

Even with all those drawbacks, the spring game remains valuable for the majority of the conference, with several Big 12 coaches pointing toward the game-like atmosphere, not to mention the recruiting value, of the traditional spring game as assets too useful to ignore.

“I think it's great for the fans,” Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury said. “You only get six home games in the regular season, sometimes we only get five some years. So to have another game at Jones Stadium so that everyone can come back and tailgate, have some festivities, I think it's great for the university and great for the fan base. And I like to see our players when the lights come on. Anybody can do it in practice, but when the lights come on and there's some pressure and people are watching, let's see how you perform."

Kansas State won’t kick off its spring drills until April 2 but will hold its spring game on April 26. Head coach Bill Snyder believes the tradition of the spring game outweighs any cons.

“The positive attributes of having a spring game for us include tradition, for our young people and our fan base, the benefits it provides our local community and the experience our players get by playing in front of a large crowd,” he said.

Charlie Strong is convinced his team can still get quality work done with a traditional spring game. The Longhorns will hold their version on April 19, with UT’s new head coach convinced it will be just another day for his players to get better.

“The most important thing is that the spring game is another opportunity to get out on the field and coach your team,” Strong said. “It's another practice, more reps and more video to look at as you get ready for the season. It is the final spring practice and having a chance to go in the stadium with a great crowd gives you an opportunity to see how the team responds to that as well."

Realistically, while opinions about the spring game vary when it comes to its value in terms of developing the current roster for the upcoming season, its recruiting value cannot be understated. There is no better spring event to put all the positives of the program on full display and intrigue potential recruits to make a special trip to campus.

“When you can bring players in and see people in the stands cheering and excited, it really helps,” Kingsbury said.

Big 12's lunch links

December, 31, 2013
12/31/13
12:00
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The final day of 2013 is upon us. Here's the latest from the Big 12.

Big 12 predictions: bowl edition

December, 26, 2013
12/26/13
10:00
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I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and is having a happy holiday. I would have a happier holiday if I could emerge victorious over all you guest pickers.

Like Texas Tech, I suffered a late-season slide to fall behind in the standings. Like Tech, I’m hoping to make it all better here during the bowl season with a big win.

In keeping with the holiday spirit, I charitably selected a final guest picker whose team sadly did not qualify for a bowl. Justin’s submission:

I’m from Iowa and have been a Cyclone fan all my life (Look out for the Cyclones in next year’s bowl picks – we’re going to be a dangerous team in the next few years with Grant Rohach getting more comfortable in the pocket). I have been in the Air Force 11 years and stationed all over the place. My wife Kassie (a Duck fan) and I have been stationed in Turkey for two years and will be getting stationed back in the U.S. next July. I read the Big 12 blog daily and would love the chance to be the guest picker.

To the bowl picks:

SEASON RECORD

Trotter last game week: 1-1 (.500)

Guest picker (Bookworm Jason) last game week: 1-1 (.500)

Trotter overall: 55-19 (.743)

Guest picker overall: 43-14 (.754)

SATURDAY

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Kansas State 35, Michigan 30: The Wildcats surprisingly have lost five straight bowl games, including Bill Snyder’s last four bowl appearances. For that reason, this game appears to mean more to Kansas State than it does to Michigan, which had a disappointing season overall. More times than not, the more motivated team prevails in these midlevel bowl games. With Michigan QB Devin Gardner ailing and questionable for this game with turf toe, the Wildcats win a bowl game for the first time in 11 years, and defensive Ryan Mueller makes good on his promise to dump Gatorade on Snyder with the victory.

Justin’s pick: This will be the least exciting Big 12 game. Snyder will have the Wildcats ready for this game, but Michigan will be too much at the end with a game-winning field goal. Michigan, 27-24


MONDAY

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oregon 44, Texas 28: The Longhorns will play hard in coach Mack Brown’s final game. But Texas faced a version of Oregon (Baylor) just a few weeks ago, and got blown out. Just like they did in Waco, the Longhorns will hang around through halftime. But without the adequate offensive firepower, the game will eventually get away from them again.

Justin’s pick: Texas needed a miracle no-call from the refs to bat my Cyclones. Not even a miracle can save the Horns here. Texas will play with a lot of emotion. But talent wins over emotion every time. Oregon, 48-17

National University Holiday Bowl: Arizona State 48, Texas Tech 31: Other than Texas, no Big 12 team has endured more December drama than the Red Raiders. First, QB Baker Mayfield stunningly decided to leave the program. Then, coach Kliff Kingsbury’s right-hand man Sonny Cumbie bolted for TCU to coach quarterbacks. Now comes a difficult bowl matchup with a team that has legitimate top-10 talent. The only teams that have given Arizona State problems this season have been mashers (Stanford, Notre Dame, Stanford again). The one thing Tech cannot do is mash.

Justin’s pick: Tech comes out scoring in the first half, but Arizona State proves to be too much. Tech has a late surge but comes up short. Arizona State, 31-24


WEDNESDAY

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Baylor 56, Central Florida 33: The only comfortable favorite among Big 12 bowl teams, Baylor must win for the conference to have any chance at a successful bowl season. UCF, however, is better than people in Big 12 country think, with road wins at Penn State and Louisville, and a near upset of South Carolina. Blake Bortles is a big-time QB, and he has playmakers around him. But Baylor has a big-time QB, too, in Bryce Petty. And he has more playmakers around him, including Tevin Reese, who is back from a dislocated wrist. As a result, “America’s Top Offense” goes out with a bang.

Justin’s pick: A lot of people think Baylor is going to smash UCF, and I’m one of them. Bryce Petty has a huge day and the Baylor D smothers the Knights. Baylor 52-24


JAN. 2

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama 41, Oklahoma 17: Bob Stoops has often thrived when his team has been the underdog. Just ask Kansas State and Oklahoma State, whom the Sooners vanquished as road dogs the final two games of the season. Alabama, however, is not K-State and Oklahoma State. And unlike the 2008 Sugar Bowl, when the opponent was Utah, the Crimson Tide should be motivated for this one. The Sooners -- with their quarterback carousel -- struggle to move the ball against the Tide, and Alabama runs the ball at will against an Oklahoma run defense that’s been suspect all year.

Justin’s pick: As much as I love the Big 12, this isn't an Oklahoma team that can hang with a team many feel is still the best team in the country. AJ McCarron gets hot and throws all over Oklahoma's secondary. Alabama, 38-17


JAN. 3

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State 31, Missouri 30: Coach Mike Gundy has been terrible against Oklahoma. But he’s been stellar in bowl games, with three straight bowl wins and a 5-2 record overall. Missouri’s defensive line has gotten plenty of publicity this season, and deservedly so. But Oklahoma State’s defense has been prolific, too. The Cowboys also boast the perfect cornerback to match up with Dorial Green-Beckham in Justin Gilbert, who might be a first-round pick in the spring. Quarterback Clint Chelf also bounces back from a subpar Beldam performance, and the Cowboys land the Big 12 a solid victory over the SEC.

Justin’s pick: Oklahoma State can put up big numbers on any team, but Mizzou has proven itself by beating up on the SEC. The Cowboys won’t be able to handle the pressure from Missouri’s defense. Mizzou, 41-38.
Five underdogs.

Three by double digits.

And only two favorites.

With this bowl season comes a prime opportunity for the Big 12 to earn national respect. Yet also, an opportunity for calamity.

This year, even though Baylor remained undefeated until the final month and Oklahoma State had just one loss until the final game, the Big 12 was never a factor in the national championship race.

[+] EnlargeStoops
Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY SportsBob Stoops said his focus is on the Sooners playing in 2014, not the talented ones who are ineligible.
One reason why is no Big 12 team opened in the preseason top 10. And that was due in part to a lackluster bowl showing from the conference in 2012.

Big 12 co-champ Kansas State couldn’t hang with Oregon in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Johnny Manziel wiped out the Big 12’s other co-champ, Oklahoma in, the AT&T Cotton Bowl.

All told, the Big 12 went 4-5, with its only impressive victory coming courtesy of Baylor in the Holiday Bowl.

In the spring, despite the poor showings at the top, Sooners coach Bob Stoops championed the depth of the conference. But unable to fill out its quota this year with bowl-eligible teams, the Big 12’s depth argument has dissipated.

And another poor bowl showing from the conference will do nothing but widen the Big 12’s national perception gap with power conferences like the SEC.

Of course, with several premier matchups, the chance is also there to narrow the gap -- starting with a pair of matchups against top teams from the SEC.

Oklahoma gets defending national championship Alabama in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, and Oklahoma State faces SEC East Division champ Missouri in the Cotton.

Sweeping those would be a huge step forward for the Big 12, as college football transitions into next year’s College Football Playoff, where perception will play a major part.

But if the Bedlam schools get waxed the way K-State and Oklahoma did last year it would do major damage to the Big 12’s case for de facto annual inclusion into the four-team tournament.

“There’s always a lot of talk because there has to be because newspapers have to be filled and air time has to be filled,” said Stoops, when asked about carrying the Big 12 banner in New Orleans. “You have to talk about something, but we don’t concern ourselves with it.”

Yet whether Stoops cares to admit it, his Sooners will in fact be carrying the Big 12 banner as two-touchdown underdogs against college football’s preeminent program of the last five years.

“Being a competitor and going up against a team like this is going to be a challenge, but it’s going to be a lot of fun, as well,” Oklahoma cornerback Aaron Colvin said. “We’re pretty anxious and we’re just excited to get out there and play.”

The Cowboys will be carrying the banner against the SEC, too. Even though they’ll be playing a team that was in the Big 12 just two years ago.

“We've always had a lot of respect for Missouri,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said. ““It's interesting that they made the change of going into the SEC and having tremendous success right away.”

[+] EnlargeMike Gundy
Stacy Revere/Getty ImagesMike Gundy and the Cowboys have drawn former Big 12 rival Missouri in the Cotton Bowl.
“It certainly makes us feel good about ourselves being in the Big 12.”

Missouri might be a former Big 12 team proving its chops in the SEC. But style points the Tigers rack up count for their current conference, not their previous one.

And as only one-point underdogs, Oklahoma State might have the best opportunity of any Big 12 school to land the conference a landmark bowl win.

“With as many games as they've won and their current ranking,” Gundy said, “they're talked about as a really good football team.”

The Big 12 has opportunity elsewhere to garner respect by toppling a pair of “name” teams.

Like fellow Big 12 flagship Oklahoma, Texas is a two-touchdown underdog to Oregon in the Valero Alamo Bowl, even though the Longhorns will be playing just 80 miles from their Austin campus.

Texas rallied to defeat Oregon State in the Alamo last year. But the challenge here will be far greater in coach Mack Brown’s final hurrah. The Ducks ranked second in the polls for much of the season, and despite some midseason struggles still boast one of the top offenses in college football.

The Longhorns averaged 31 points per game. Oregon scored that few only twice all season.

“They are someone you definitely have to keep up with or you'll get left behind quickly,” said Texas guard Trey Hopkins. “It will be a big challenge for us against a talented opponent.”

K-State is back in the desert for the postseason, this time the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Even though it’s not a BCS bowl, the Wildcats can also give the Big 12 a big win over a big name.

“As a kid growing up, Michigan is one of those poster programs that you see all over TV, you watch them growing up,” said K-State receiver Curry Sexton. “You kind of almost idolize them – one of those programs that every kid in the country likes to watch play.”

Arizona State might not be idolized the way Michigan is. But this season, the Sun Devils are more talented, and were a fringe top 10 team late in the season. That’s a difficult National University Holiday Bowl challenge for a Texas Tech team that closed out the season on a five-game losing streak and lost starting quarterback Baker Mayfield to transfer two weeks ago.

Which is why for the Big 12 it’s incumbent Baylor prevails as the conference’s only comfortable favorite in the Fiesta over Central Florida.

Tough matchups abound elsewhere. Which is an opportunity for the league to prove its playoff mettle. But also one to lose precious ground in college football’s perception wars.

“It always helps,” Stoops said of beating the likes of an Alabama. “It’s definitely something that could boost you.”

Big 12 lunchtime links

December, 20, 2013
12/20/13
12:00
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The New Yorker on the best movies of the year:
  • The Austin American-Statesman's Danny Davis reported that former Texas Tech QB Baker Mayfield is planning to enroll at Oklahoma, and walk on in January. According to The Oklahoman's Jason Kersey, that was news to OU coach Bob Stoops, who said the Sooners weren't pursuing any transfer QBs. This story keeps getting stranger and stranger.
  • The Texas players described to the Dallas Morning News' Chuck Carlton the scene as Mack Brown told them of his resignation. The Austin American-Statesman compiled some updates on the Texas coaching search. Former Texas safety and current Seattle Seahawk Earl Thomas has one name he doesn't want to appear in the Texas search.
  • Baylor coach Art Briles was asked what he would do if the Longhorns came calling. Briles' response? "The grass is green here" at Baylor.
  • Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said he's had no contact with Texas about the Longhorns' job, and more interestingly, said he has changed agents.
  • The Charleston Daily Mail's Mike Casazza says there's no denying attrition was a problem for West Virginia this season. The Charleston Gazette's Dave Hickman examines what West Virginia will do next at quarterback. The paper chronicles the odyssey of defensive end recruit Terry Ayeni, who is considering the Mountaineers.
  • Kansas coach Charlie Weis said firing himself as offensive coordinator was best for the Jayhawks, according to the Topeka Capital-Journal's Jesse Newell.
  • TCU lost a recruit back to Arkansas.
  • The Longhorns made the cut to stay in the mix for blue-chip linebacker Solomon Thomas.
  • Oklahoma linebacker Corey Nelson is down to his final recourse in his effort to get a fifth season of eligibility from the NCAA.
  • Iowa State is looking for instant help from its four junior college signings, writes the Ames Tribune's Bobby La Gesse. The Des Moines Register's Chris Williams wonders who will replace Kirby Van Der Kamp at punter.
  • Coach Bill Snyder calls Kansas State wideout Curry Sexton "Google." The Garden City Telegram's Arne Green has the story.
  • Sophomore offensive lineman Tony Morales could return to practice next week after missing the regular season with a torn shoulder labrum, the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal's Don Williams reports.
Thanks for all of your questions during my chat, you can find the full transcript here.

Jay (Dallas) No matter how people try to spin it, Sonny Cumbie kicking Texas Tech to the curb in favor of TCU, makes the red raiders look real bad.

Brandon Chatmon I disagree Jay, and here's why. At TCU, he is working for a head coach with a defensive background who runs that side of the ball. At Tech, he's working for a head coach with an offensive background who runs that side of the ball. So now Cumbie probably in a situation with more freedom and the ability to get more involved with play calling, etc... would he have the same opportunity at Tech?

Grant Hallbauer (Waco) Which Big 12 teams do you see with the highest pre-season rankings and the greatest outlook for the 2014 season?

Brandon Chatmon Baylor and Oklahoma come to mind immediately with Oklahoma State and Texas also in the mix. But the Bears, to me, should be the favorite to win again based off Bryce Petty returning.

Josh (oklahoma) I’m curious as to how people think the Sooners will be next year. They have a really young team. They have managed 10 wins and turned out to be alright this year despite what people thought. Do you see them being much more improved next year and possibly making a National Title run?

Brandon Chatmon If OU finds its quarterback and that guy plays at a high level, there's nothing the Sooners cannot accomplish in 2014. There's a lot of young talent in Norman.

Mike (Horn in OK) I’ve read Jon Gruden would be interested in a shot at UT. what are the odds he fits Steve Patterson’s criteria?

Brandon Chatmon There has been so many names thrown around in Austin, it's been interesting. You would have thought the Longhorns would have been better prepared than this to be honest. I think what I've learned in the past two weeks is, maybe, just maybe, Mack Brown isn't the problem.

Red (Atlanta) Hi Brandon, I see Mike Gundy on the list for the Texas job. I wonder if he does want to leave, would the SEC be a better fit for him? Does he want to leave his alma mater for one of its biggest rivals? If I were him I'd wait for Steve Spurrier to leave SC, Les Miles to leave LSU, or Gus Malzahn to leave Auburn. Agree?

Brandon Chatmon No. None of those jobs are better than Texas. And I don't know that the SEC is a better fit for him either.

Matt (Philly) Your name is Chatmon AND you're holding a chat? Mind. Blown.

Brandon Chatmon Yes. An amazing turn of events right? I cannot confirm that Trotter is trotting right now however.

Glen (Dallas ) Do you really think that TCU's offense will be improved next year? I like the two OC's they got but we still don't have a proven QB to make the air raid offense fly.

Brandon Chatmon Did you see how bad it was? Not only did they struggle to move the ball, they turned it over. So, yes, I think it will be better. I also like the hire of Doug Meacham, he'll have a good plan for how to get things going in the right direction and he did a great job at Houston this season. I expect it to be much improved, even though they'll have to search for a quarterback.

What Big 12 coaches made per win

December, 18, 2013
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Kansas’ Charlie Weis was the sixth-highest paid FBS coach this year.

In pay per victory.

Weis, in his second season, was paid $2.5 million, or $833,333 for each of his three victories, according to a database assembled by USA TODAY.

The survey did not include private schools or others whose compensation figures were not available.

Texas’ Mack Brown and West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen ranked ninth and 10th in cost per victory. Brown was paid $674,063 for each of Texas’ eight wins; Holgorsen, $657,500 for West Virginia’s four wins.

The most cost-efficient coaches in the Big 12 were Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy and Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury. Gundy earned just $345,000 for each of his 10 wins. Kingsbury made $265,000 apiece for Tech’s seven victories.

The survey did not include private schools (Baylor or TCU) or others whose compensation figures were not available.

Big 12 lunchtime links

December, 13, 2013
12/13/13
12:00
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Check out this interview with Maurice Clarett. Good stuff here.

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