Texas Longhorns

AUSTIN, Texas -- The object of the Texas running game, as it is with all others, is to not get touched.

Given that perfection is much more elusive than the runners trying to achieve it, the next best thing then is to not let those touches have too much effect. In order to quantify just how good runners are at not being adversely affected, the hairball-in-windpipe-sounding YAC (yards after contact) stat was born.

As it turns out, Texas is pretty decent at garnering YAC. Texas’ top three runners, Johnathan Gray, Joe Bergeron and Malcolm Brown, gained 42 percent of their yards after contact in 2012.

Brown, who carried the ball the least among the three (61 rushes for 324 yards), proved to be the most effective when it came to shaking off potential tacklers. The rising junior gained 87 percent of his yards after contact on 281 of his 324 yards.

Bergeron, the biggest of the three backs and the most apt to run between the tackles, was next with 51 percent of his yards coming after contact (287 of 567).

Gray, by far the shiftiest of the three, proved to be a much more elusive target for defenses but also, quite possibly, easier for them to bring down as well. The rising sophomore gained 14 percent of his yards after contact (102 of 701). Maybe not so coincidentally, Gray was not injured during his freshman year. Brown and Bergeron both suffered injuries as freshmen in 2011 and Brown was hurt again as a sophomore.

All three are now healthy. Expectations are the Texas run game should be as well. There are three accomplished and veteran backs. Three-year starters littered across the offensive line. And there has been a shift toward a spread offense that actually seizes upon the novel theory of running where the defense isn’t.

It’s that last factor, coupled with Gray’s elusiveness as demonstrated by his YAC, that appears to make him the ideal candidate for the most carries in 2013. Clearly Gray has already demonstrated the ability to be elusive even when having to pick his way through to green grass and daylight. So the imagination wanders when considering what he might be able to do when, egad, given the ball in space or with space which to work. His 4.7 yards-per-carry average could top 5.0 or even quite possibly wander into the 6.0 range, a mark not surpassed by a Texas runner with more than 75 carries since Jamaal Charles was given room to roam in a spread offense in 2007.

But Gray’s march could be could short if Brown and Bergeron are unable to produce YAC stats similar to 2012’s in 2013. Brown probably will not hover near the 87 percent mark. That number is slightly skewed due to a shortened season, lack of carries and Brown’s willingness to duck his shoulder and summarily dismiss every Ole Miss defender that was sent his way.

If he, like Bergeron, were to produce 50 percent of his yards after contact, Texas would succeed in producing the roundhouses and uppercuts necessary to daze a defense and therefore set up the potential for Gray to take advantage of weary bodies and glassy eyes. It’s the oft-coined thunder-and-lightning effect. Texas could have two claps and one strike.

Now while such a scenario still might not mean perfection, it might just be close enough that Texas would be satisfied.

Colleague Travis Haney ranked his list of the nation's top 10 "most talented" teams , and a certain burnt orange team you might have heard showed up at No. 2 on his list.

It's an interesting approach to ranking teams, and Haney looked at NFL draft lists, colleague Mark Schlabach's top 25 and the past four years of recruiting rankings to put together his list.

A lot of the ranking is thanks to those recruiting rankings, where Texas' class averaged a ranking of 6.5 among players currently suiting up for the Longhorns.

I agree that Texas is the Big 12's most talented team by a long way, but what does that really mean, besides more pressure on Mack Brown? The Longhorns beat a rebuilding Oklahoma State team in September that was a shell of the team it became late in the season, and did so narrowly with J.W. Walsh making his first career start for the Pokes. You've got to take all that into consideration, and when you look back at the last two years, Texas' best win was either its Alamo Bowl comeback against Oregon State or a road win against Texas Tech, who ended the season tied for fifth in the league.

A pair of embarrassing blowout losses to Oklahoma are the biggest reason for skepticism surrounding the Longhorns, who plenty of folks will pick to win the Big 12 in 2013. They've certainly got talent. Look no further than super recruits like DE Jackson Jeffcoat, DT Malcom Brown, and running backs Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray for evidence of that, not to mention defenders like CB Quandre Diggs and linebackers Peter Jinkens and Jordan Hicks.

The Longhorns have talent all over the field, and that has been the case the past three seasons, which have featured just 22 wins. Now, though, that talent has experience and Texas is preparing for it to pay off.

On paper, it should. Texas has every reason to be one of, if not the, Big 12 favorite. Still, the Longhorns have got to prove it on the field, and it takes a lot of big wins to make that happen. Texas has been short on those wins of late.

AUSTIN, Texas -- When it came to David Ash, Malcolm Brown's answer was no different than any other Texas player has given over the past several years when the quarterback question has come up.

"Like Mike Davis said, he has a swagger about him now," the running back said of the quarterback.

Only now it might be time to believe in the rising junior. Not because of some huge personality shift in Ash, but because this time –-- the junior season following a multi-year starter's sophomore season -- is typically when said actions start to speak louder than words.

Looking back at eight Big 12 multi-year starting quarterbacks -- Texas’ Colt McCoy, Texas’ Vince Young, Missouri’s Chase Daniel, Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell, Oklahoma’s Landry Jones, Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden, Baylor’s Robert Griffin III and Kansas’ Todd Reesing -- all but one had a dramatic leap in every statistical category from their sophomore to junior years. (Jones was the exception. In the six categories measured, he only increased his stats in one category, average yards per game.)

So the odds are Ash, who started 12 games in 2012, should follow suit. Maybe not to the extreme of Young, who topped the other seven aforementioned quarterbacks when it came to overall production increase. But there should at least be a measure of improvement to Ash’s stats. How much is up for debate for the next several months.

But if he follows the statistical average presented by those eight quarterbacks who have gone before him, Ash could see his passing efficiency rating rise by 17.10 points, completion percentage by 5 percent, touchdowns by 5.8, interceptions shrink by a nominal 0.25, overall yards move up 581.8 and yards per game to increase by 45.6.

Of course, there are mitigating factors that could shape whether or not Ash has a rise or fall in his stats in 2013.

One of which is that Ash already experienced a dramatic rise in his stats from 2011 to 2012. In his sophomore season, Ash finished in the top 25 in passer efficiency rating and increased that rating 45.9 points. He had 15 more touchdown passes as a sophomore, threw for 1,620 yards and completed 10.4 percent more of his passes. (He also had 144 more attempts as a sophomore than as a freshman.) The point being that quite possibly a ceiling, if not already hit, is at least within arm’s length.

A counter argument could be that a shift in offensive philosophy, from traditional sets to spread, should serve to bolster his stats. In addition, the Big 12’s defenses -- at least that of the top teams Oklahoma and Kansas State -- have experienced huge losses on their side of the ball. Add that fact to the unavoidable truth that the Big 12 is not exactly chock full of top defenses -- only TCU and Texas Tech finished in the top 40 in total defense in 2012 -- and it sets up for Ash to have at least a nominal rise in his statistical production in his junior season.

If all that is not enough to make a decision, there are still the words of Ash’s teammates to go by as well:

"Now that he has it down, he’s a lot more comfortable," Brown said. "He’s loosened up with us and he talks more now because he knows what he’s doing."

Given that this is Ash’s junior year and that history is on his side, it might just be time to believe those words.

After Texas' dramatic Alamo Bowl comeback, Mack Brown sat down and explained the significance of the win to his team. After winning eight games in 2011 following a five-win disaster in 2010, reaching nine wins in 2012 was important.

Sure, it signified progress. It also wasn't enough.

"Nine’s not enough at Texas. They understand that the last three years are not acceptable," Brown said. "They’re not the standard that we set forth for many, many years. They’re not who we want to be. We want to go back and win the conference championship and get back in the mix for the national championship, and at Texas, our expectations are obviously to win every game."

Brown is done calling his team "young" for a while. He still lacks a huge, experienced senior class, but quarterback David Ash, receiver Jaxon Shipley and running back Malcolm Brown have matured into juniors entering their third seasons as starters, and four starters return on the offensive line. Texas' 17 returning starters are the most in the Big 12.

"It’s been a fun couple of years and a tough couple of years for us getting it back on track, but I think we’re about to reap some rewards for those hard Saturdays," Brown said.

Brown would love to string together nine consecutive 10-win seasons, as he did earlier in his career, but has said on several occasions that while the losses aren't enjoyable, the process of rebuilding is more fun for him than trying to maintain an established team. Still, re-establishing the program and winning big is the end goal, and entering 2013 that looks like a realistic goal.

"That’s the reason (our players) came to Texas. That’s what they expect. They know that they want to please their fan base, and coaches understand as well that they didn’t come to Texas to win nine games," Brown said. "Everybody’s on the same page and everybody wants to win every game."

Lopsided losses to co-Big 12 champions Oklahoma and Kansas State showed how far Texas had to go to reclaim its status as a Big 12 title contender. The Longhorns can't afford close losses like they had to West Virginia and TCU last season, both at home.

The rebuilding job has been a success in filling the depth chart with quality talent and depth, but the Longhorns still have to prove they can be the best team on the field in every game (or close to every game) as they did for much of the 2000s, when Texas won a pair of Big 12 titles under Brown and played for a pair of national titles, winning one.

"We hope we’re getting ready to start that kind of run again," Brown said, "but it’s easier to build one than to keep one."

AUSTIN, Texas -- Malcolm Brown wants to believe, once again, that there will be enough carries to go around this year.

That very well could be true. Texas wants to move from running around 65 plays a game to up near 85. David Ash doesn’t appear to be a 45-pass-attempt-a-game guy, so those extra plays, if Texas is successful in producing them, will have to fall to someone’s shoulders. And Johnathan Gray probably cannot carry that load by himself.

"We can all run in there with the first group and play," Brown said. "Nobody in the running back room is selfish at all. We’re all happy for each other and want to see everybody do well. Whatever situation it is and whatever guy is best at that situation will be in the game."

That hasn’t always been the case, particularly with Brown. That’s due in part to injuries. Brown, once heralded as the back who would bring back the Texas run game, has only started eight games in his two-year career. He has played in 18. And has really only been 100-percent healthy in 12 games.

Then there were the issues with the playcalling. Brown had 14 carries and 100-plus yards in the opener against Wyoming and two carries in the next game against New Mexico State. Texas said it tried to get him the ball. But that excuse rings slightly hollow considering the level of difficulty involved in turning and handing the ball off to a running back is typically mastered in pee wee football.

Then there was the Alamo Bowl, Brown’s homecoming and a game in which he was fully healthy. He carried the ball four times for eight yards.

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You can only be inspired by our friends at the ACC Blog, but today, we'll start looking at a few of the Big 12's best teams and asking you the big question: Do you buy them as a Big 12 title contender?

Or is any talk of a title simply pretending?

Let's start with the team I believe will be the most polarizing in these debates: the Texas Longhorns.

Texas has recruited solidly, though it's not necessarily pulling in top-five classes with ease lately. The defense struggled to stop the run, but the offseason began with a good taste in Texas' mouths after a dramatic Alamo Bowl comeback against a good Oregon State team for one of the Big 12's best nonconference wins of the season.

Major Applewhite is finally taking over as playcaller and he's got to help David Ash mature and find the consistency to make Texas a contender for some major hardware for the first time since the 2009 season.

Two of Texas' best defenders -- linebacker Jordan Hicks and defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat -- will be back on the field after missing most of 2012 with injuries. Receiver Mike Davis elected to come back for his senior season after proving himself as a deep threat last season, offsetting a strong running game with four great backs headlined by Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray, two of Texas' best signees in its 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes.

The Longhorns won at least 10 games in nine consecutive seasons before missing a bowl game in 2010. Texas has steadily improved since that disaster, but is this the year Texas breaks back into the double digits and wins a Big 12 title?

Vote in our poll. Is Texas a contender or a pretender?

Turnover is an annual tradition in college football, but with that, teams' strengths and weaknesses constantly shift, too. Today, we'll continue our look at the biggest strengths and weaknesses for each Big 12 team.

Next up: Texas.

Strongest position: Running backs

You simply could not ask for anything more from one position, and I might make the case that this is the strongest unit in the Big 12 in terms of pure skill. The Longhorns lost D.J. Monroe from this unit last year, but they run four deep and each brings something special to the table. Johnathan Gray has the best balance of the quartet, and the rising sophomore looks like a favorite to win the starting job on the back of his strong first step. The starting position is a bit pointless ultimately, considering all four will get touches, especially Malcolm Brown, a balanced back with a great feel for space between the tackles who leans a bit more toward being a power runner.

The other two backs are pure specialty, but every backfield can use those. Joe Bergeron is a 240-pound bowling ball who rolled his way to 16 touchdowns a year ago, more than anyone else in the Big 12 except Collin Klein, who finished third in the Heisman voting. On the other end of the spectrum is Daje Johnson, a sophomore speedster who averaged 11.5 yards a touch last season. He had touchdown runs of 45 yards (New Mexico) and 84 yards (Baylor) that showcased his speed. This is a solid group with elite talent and tons of depth and versatility. Texas has recruited running backs so well lately, and it's showing up on the field. What more could you ask for?

Weakest position: Specialists

Texas has solid talent in the return game with Quandre Diggs and Jaxon Shipley, but the kicking game was a disaster last season and the Longhorns are trying to find an answer at punter to fill in for Alex King, who graduated after averaging better than 45 yards a kick on his 43 punts last year. The big problem that carried over from last season is at place-kicker. Texas finished last season just 11-of-19 on field goals, tied for the worst mark in the Big 12 and 107th nationally.

Penn State transfer Anthony Fera was the biggest hope at the position, but he was nagged with a persistent groin injury and has been working mostly at punter this spring after making 2-of-4 field goals last year. Freshman Nick Jordan made 9-of-15 kicks last season and has to be better to hold onto his spot.

Texas has recruited well all over the field and doesn't lose much from last year's team, but when I survey the depth chart, kicker and punter are clearly the biggest weaknesses for the Longhorns. The players currently on the roster are long on potential but short on real accomplishments.

More Weak and Strong.

Every year, there's lots of turnover and change for every college program. What do the Big 12 teams need to do before next fall? Let's continue our look with the Longhorns down in Austin.

1. Figure out the offensive identity. Bryan Harsin is gone, and he's probably taking most of his pre-snap shifts with him. Will Major Applewhite still look to run a power offense? Texas has recruited and developed its offensive line really well lately, but David Ash has matured, and even with a wealth of backs in Malcolm Brown, Johnathan Gray, Joe Bergeron and Daje Johnson, Texas hasn't been able to keep them healthy or get consistent production out of one for an entire season. Will Applewhite put more responsibility in Ash's hands? He was good at times last season, but the rising junior was inconsistent. His ceiling is probably a legitimate Heisman campaign. His floor is probably getting benched in favor Connor Brewer or Jalen Overstreet -- or maybe even incoming freshman Tyrone Swoopes. Where will he fall on the spectrum? Will Texas continue to try to pound the trenches?

2. Plug up the middle of the defense. Texas' defense made no sense last season. The personnel is absolutely there to be great up front. The defensive tackles are deep and talented, led by guys like Malcom Brown, Ashton Dorsey, Desmond Jackson and Chris Whaley. The linebackers were solid, even without Jordan Hicks, who should be back next season. Peter Jinkens is a rising star and a few others have potential. Coordinator Manny Diaz didn't take another job, electing to stay in Austin and attempt fix the most underwhelming unit in the Big 12. It all starts with the ability to stop the run, something Texas never did consistently last season. Fix that, and the rest of this defense comes around, I say.

3. Discover and develop leadership. Texas was still a pretty young team last season after rebooting on both sides of the ball after the 2010 season. The freshmen and sophomores who contributed in 2011 are juniors and seniors now, but the team is losing guys like Alex Okafor and Kenny Vaccaro, players who had been around awhile and served as role models for younger guys. Look for Jackson Jeffcoat and David to fill the role this year, but other players, like Malcolm Brown or Jaxon Shipley, might emerge, too. We'll see who steps up in the spring.

More offseason to-do lists:

• Texas Tech
• West Virginia