Texas Longhorns

Looking back at Texas' recent recruiting misses:

1. Garrett Gilbert, quarterback, 2009: He was the quarterback that everyone wanted and he was in Texas’ backyard. The Lake Travis (Texas) High school product got his first shot to shine in the national title game as a true freshman. While there were some positives, the four interceptions he threw were a sign of things to come. Taking over as the starter in 2010, Gilbert led Texas to a 5-7 season and threw 17 interceptions in the process. Gilbert started the first two games of 2011. He was benched after throwing his second interception in the second quarter against BYU. He soon announced that he would transfer, ending up at SMU.

2. Ramonce Taylor, running back, 2004: Taylor was the other state of Texas back in 2004. The one not named Adrian Peterson. The one Texas could sign. But Texas never could figure out what to do with Belton (Texas) product. He was an athlete coming out of high school. Texas thought he would be ideal to give Vince Young another weapon either running the ball out of the backfield or slipping into the flat for a pass.

He rushed for 797 yards and 13 touchdowns in his Texas career. And as a sophomore he did catch 27 passes from Colt McCoy.

But the police caught Taylor in the spring of his sophomore season and charged him with felony drug possession. Shortly thereafter he elected to transfer from Texas.

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Texas signed 39 recruits in 2008 and 2009. Only 19 of those players made it through four years of football.

"Lot of guys didn't last in our class," senior safety Kenny Vaccaro said. "We're the proud few."

Those few -- there are 10 scholarship seniors on the roster with one, Alex King, being a transfer from Duke -- will take place in senior night tonight.

"The thing we've always said is, 'There's so much emotion. Try to keep your emotion intact and enjoy the game and play well in the ballgame. And then if you're going to cry, cry afterwards because you won. Cry because you're happy and it's your last home game,' " said Texas coach Mack Brown.

There might be a few tears shed for those players signed in 2008 or ’09 that didn’t pan out at Texas. That list includes ESPN 150 players Garrett Gilbert, Marcus Davis, Tariq Allen, Paden Kelly, Dan Buckner, Jarvis Humphrey and DeSean Hales. That’s seven ESPN 150 players Texas lost from those two signing classes for one reason or another. To put that in perspective TCU, Texas’ opponent, has only signed three ESPN 150 players since 2008.

AUSTIN, Texas -- Case McCoy is preparing to play.

Just like last week. As well as the week before. And every week since the Texas quarterback position became so unsettled in 2011. What makes this week different is that David Ash had settled all the QB debate. Going into the Oklahoma game he was No. 3 in the nation in passing efficiency, had one pick against 11 touchdowns and had averaged 300 yards passing in the past three games.

Now there is debate as to whether Ash can play. The sophomore suffered a left wrist injury in the fourth quarter with Texas trailing Oklahoma 56-8.

No fractures were seen on the initial X-rays, Texas trainer Kenny Boyd said in a release. And Ash, who throws with his right arm, has not been ruled out for the Baylor game. He will be evaluated throughout the week.

Still, that injury has thrust McCoy right back under center as the possible starting quarterback, just as he was last year against Baylor. In fact, the last game McCoy started was against the Bears. In the subsequent seven games, Ash attempted 190 passes to McCoy’s 16. McCoy appeared in only four of those seven games and all four were decided, either in favor of or against Texas, by at least two touchdowns.

But now he is back where it all ended trying to figure out how to fashion a new beginning for Texas.

According to McCoy, that beginning started in the second half against OU.

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David Ash completed just 57 percent of his passes as a wide-eyed true freshman in 2011. He compounded his problems by outweighing his four touchdowns with eight interceptions.

This was Garrett Gilbert's team through all the offseason leading up to 2011. Ash was the true freshman who was better than expected but not good enough to get more than four snaps in Texas' spring game last season.

By the end of 2011, it was clear that Texas was Ash's team, but he looked wholly unprepared to shoulder the load and lead the way. And now? After what Ash did to Ole Miss? The stat sheet tells you pretty much everything you need to know.

Ash is one of just three Big 12 quarterbacks (Heisman front-runner Geno Smith and TCU's Casey Pachall) without an interception, and he's been good enough to add seven touchdown passes, including four in Texas' 66-31 rout of Ole Miss.

He's also completing 76 percent of his passes this time around, including 83 percent on Saturday night. His 326 yards were the second consecutive game in which Ash set a career high for passing yardage, too.

Scoff at the opponents (Ole Miss and New Mexico won a combined three games in 2011), but Ash has Texas looking more and more like it's ready to return to a spot among the nation's elite. He doesn't need to complete 76 percent of his passes every night. He can throw a pick or two. But he's been good, and far better than he needs to be for Texas to improve on its eight-win season a year ago. For now, as long as Ash is stringing together completions (he hit on 15 consecutive passes on Saturday), defenses will soften up for a powerful running game with a revolving door of backs who will always have fresh legs.

When that happens, a defense that's led the Big 12 in total defense four years running gets more leeway it doesn't necessarily need.

Add that all up, and you get a scary proposition for the rest of the Big 12: Texas beginning to put together the pieces that comprise a return to a college football juggernaut.

Today is the next step in a new series on the Big 12 blog that we've never done before. I love predicting the standings from top to bottom, but we're going to do it week by week leading up to the season. The end goal is to offer my official prediction for each Big 12 team's record heading into the bowl games.

Remember, these are preseason predictions. We'll obviously still do week-to-week picks once the season arrives, and they may change between now and then. There are a lot of preseason practices and a whole lot of games between now and the end of the season.

There are always teams who disappoint and teams who surprise. But here's how I see the Big 12 shaking out in Week 5.

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

• Week 1
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4

West Virginia 47, Baylor 38: Ah, the sweet smell of conference play. Legitimate competition at last and the first week of Big 12 play with more than one conference game. West Virginia and Baylor remind us all why we love Big 12 play, putting on an offensive showcase. West Virginia's simply more experienced and has better talent at the skill positions. The Mountaineers get a couple more stops than Baylor and defend Milan Puskar Stadium in their first Big 12 game ever.

Texas Tech 41, Iowa State 31: Iowa State has beaten the Red Raiders in each of the past two seasons, but the Red Raiders get their revenge in Ames this time. Seth Doege shreds an underrated Iowa State secondary, and with an offense that's finally healthy, gets Texas Tech looking like it's back on the right track. The heat on Tommy Tuberville feels pretty nil so far.

Texas 31, Oklahoma State 14: Growing pains had to happen sometime. Texas scored on its first two possessions and forced Oklahoma State to miss a field goal on its first to take a 14-0 lead. Wes Lunt forced balls at the worst possible time against the league's best defense and the true freshman finishes with four interceptions. Texas looks like a serious Big 12 title contender, and Oklahoma State's conference opener is a rough one. Both teams will only get better, though.

TCU 38, SMU 31: TCU struggles early, but earns its revenge in Dallas over a fast-improving June Jones team. Garrett Gilbert's Redemption Tour crashes back into the Big 12, but TCU's offense is too much. The powerful running game wears down the Ponies in the fourth quarter and keeps Gilbert, Zach Line and the rest of the offense off the field.

BIG 12 STANDINGS (after Week 4)

1. TCU: 4-0 (1-0)
1. Texas: 4-0 (1-0)
1. Texas Tech: 4-0 (1-0)
1. West Virginia: 4-0 (1-0)
5. Oklahoma: 3-0 (1-0)
6. Oklahoma State: 3-1 (0-1)
6. Baylor: 3-1 (0-1)
6. Kansas State: 3-1 (0-1)
6. Kansas: 3-1 (0-1)
10. Iowa State: 2-2 (0-1)

AUSTIN, Texas -- Texas needed a wide receiver.

A threat for the quarterback. A toy for the offensive coordinator. A nightmare for the defense. Another No. 4.

Then it happened. That player was signed. And the hyperbole that had started with his commitment hit a crescendo with Mack Brown’s comments.

“He looks like some of the No. 4s [on film] that we have had around here,” the coach said. “He is tall, can run, and can make a difference for you.”

Now, he is gone.

Darius White transferred. He is one of 17 Texas players who have either elected to transfer or left the program for various reasons in the last 11 months. Texas signed 28 players in February. So the Longhorns are still plus 11 on the ledger.

Still, at first glance, the attrition rate for Texas has been alarming. Eighteen members of the 2009 and 2010 classes were gone before their eligibility expired. But a look back, and more importantly, a look ahead provides clear evidence that the panic button need not be pressed and the outrage should be stifled.

Quite simply the majority of the 17 players who have left in the past 11 months were not as good as the 22 players Texas signed in February of 2011.

Jaxon Shipley was a better wide receiver than White or Chris Jones. David Ash was a better quarterback than Garrett Gilbert. M.J. McFarland was a better tight end than Darius Terrell. And on it went.

Of the 17, only two, Calvin Howell, who was forced to leave Texas after an arrest for possession of a controlled substance, and Nolan Brewster, who had to quit for medical reasons, might have contributed in 2012.

What this spate of transfers does indicate is that Texas got lazy in its recruiting evaluations prior to the new assistants arriving in early 2011. Brown knows that. And he has at least talked about changing his ways.

“Everybody has a good recruiting class. It never changes,” he said. “The truth is, what will it look like in four years? What will it look like in five years? If you go back and study, that's our job. That's the young man's job. This is a starting point. This isn't the finishing.

“We need to make sure that we do a great job of bringing these guys along, making them productive players and hoping that their experience is good at The University of Texas and that they can win a lot of football games.”

The other clear signals sent by the transfers are that Texas now has a young core of players that it believes in and those players are buying into the system. The older players, those from the ‘09-‘10 classes, look around and realize their chances of playing are slim.

Ultimately, players want to play. And if they can’t play at Texas there are still places where they can play.

Adding to the pressures of the youth movement is the new zero tolerance attitude of the coaching staff. Because there are now younger players in the program who produce, the coaching staff is not so hesitant to hold everyone accountable to a higher standard.

The staff can push harder and if an older player who is used to coasting wants to leave, so be it, it will not adversely affect the product on the field. Essentially, the staff is telling the players they now have to prove their worth each and every day. In the past there was an attitude that if a player had received a scholarship, he was worthy enough to be a part of the team. Judging from the numbers, that attitude was pervasive.

Now what is sweeping through Texas is change. That means changing faces, attitudes and, above all, the expectations of those new players who are signed to scholarships for the express purpose of making those changes.

Time to continue our series breaking down each team's best and worst positions entering the 2012 season. Texas is up next.

More spring superlatives:

• Baylor
• Iowa State
• Kansas
• Kansas State
• Oklahoma
• Oklahoma State

Strongest position: Defensive end

Look out for these guys. Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor just might take both of the All-Big 12 spots by the end of the season. The same might be true for Texas' cornerbacks, who were narrowly edged out for my "strongest position" on the Longhorns. Okafor and Jeffcoat combined for 29.5 tackles for loss last season as first-year starters, both ranking in the Big 12's top eight. They also had 14 sacks, both in the top seven in the league. No defensive line duo was more productive, and that should continue this season. Jeffcoat, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2010 class, has a bit more upside, but both of these guys have potential to win the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2012. Texas will have the luxury this season to rush just four players and drop back seven in coverage, but still get plenty of pressure on quarterbacks. The biggest reason why: Okafor and Jeffcoat. When that happens, the defense can at times look impenetrable.

Weakest position: Quarterback

It's a sad state of affairs at quarterback for Texas right now. Blue-chip recruit Garrett Gilbert flopped, and the Longhorns have scrambled since. For now, Case McCoy and David Ash are what's left behind, and it wasn't pretty last season. Quarterback is the biggest hole for a team that's otherwise complete.

For Texas, that's a huge hole, especially considering the talents like Vince Young and Colt McCoy that filled it previously, sending Texas to national title games. Ash is the presumed starter for 2012, but from my perspective, no team in the Big 12 is weaker at quarterback. Kansas hopped the Longhorns when it brought in Notre Dame transfer Dayne Crist. Ash could show some major development after an offseason with a lot of first-team reps -- reps he didn't get as a fourth-string true freshman leading up to the 2011 season -- but he's got a long way to go to even meet the average production for Big 12 quarterbacks.

Today, we'll kick off a look at the postseason rankings for each position in the Big 12. Here's a look back on where our first position, quarterback, stood in the preseason.

Quarterbacks' rushing talents are factored into these rankings. As such, it's tough to figure out how to weigh that vs. passing acumen. Ultimately, teams ranked 4-7 were really, really close.

In these position rankings, we take into account backups, though that impact is minimal at the quarterback spot.

1. Baylor

If your quarterback wins the Heisman, you're not finishing below No. 1 on this list. Robert Griffin IIIlit up defenses and broke the NCAA record for passing efficiency, even though Wisconsin's Russell Wilson did the same this year, and finished higher than RG3. Even when RG3 suffered concussion-like symptoms against Texas Tech, backup Nick Florencecame in and burned Texas Tech's defense in a 66-42 win. Griffin finished with as many touchdowns as Brandon Weeden (37), but threw as few interceptions as Collin Klein (6), despite throwing the ball 121 more times than Klein.

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