Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Stats that matter: Valero Alamo Bowl
By Max Olson
Each week, we team up with the ESPN Stats & Info crew to dig into the numbers that matter most and find three statistics that could make a big difference. Here are the numbers to remember going into Texas’ season finale against No. 10 Oregon in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Jan. 30 (5:45 p.m. CT, ESPN).
There’s no better way to prepare for Oregon than playing Texas Tech and Baylor, right?
Texas Tech (88.4) and Baylor (82.4) actually ran more plays per game this season than Oregon, whose average of 75.4 is about on par with what the Ducks did during Chip Kelly’s tenure.
They’d prefer to run more, of course, but when you’re No. 2 in the nation in yards per play at 7.6, you tend to move down the field too quickly to need 80 or more. Still, the Ducks’ famed tempo makes it difficult for defensive substitutions and its wide assortment of option looks should challenge Texas greatly.
The Longhorns can take comfort in knowing they held Baylor’s No. 1 scoring offense to 30 points and just 3 in the first half. Oregon, by the way, is outscoring foes by a margin of plus-147 points in the first half this season. If the Ducks get this high-speed offense rolling from the start and avoid turnovers, they can be awfully hard to stop.
Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has been masterful in his first two seasons as the Ducks’ starter. His Total QBR since the start of the 2012 season is 89.0, second-best in FBS behind only Jameis Winston (who didn’t play last season), and his career TD-to-INT ratio is a whopping 62-10.
Of course, what makes him especially dangerous against Texas is his rushing ability. Mariota has averaged more than 53 rushing yards per game in his career and has gained 10-plus yards on 53 of his runs. A knee injury slowed him to 71 total rushing yards in Oregon’s final four games, but he’s expected to be 100 percent healthy for the Alamo Bowl.
Two things worth noting there: Mariota has fumbled on nearly 10 percent of his rushing attempts in his career, and Texas’ defense is currently in the top 12 nationally in sacks with 37 on the year. With how Oregon runs the zone read, Jackson Jeffcoat and Cedric Reed have to play smart while also applying plenty of pressure.
Texas tailback Malcolm Brown, who has rushed for 774 yards this season, will see the bulk of the carries vs. Oregon.
Texas can’t win this game without an overpowering rushing attack and an ability to down the Ducks at the point of attack. A few running backs have had serious success against Oregon in 2013.
Arizona’s Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 206 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win over Oregon. Washington back Bishop Sankey, a fellow Doak Walker Award finalist, ran for 167 and UW trailed by just one score entering the fourth in a 45-24 loss.
In Oregon’s other loss, Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney pounded out 157 yards on 45 attempts. And Oregon State running back Terron Ward gained 145 in a one-point loss in the Civil War Game.
Add it all up and that’s 675 yards by four backs. Malcolm Brown punished Baylor early, to the tune of 118 first-half yards, but Texas doesn’t have any other backs besides Brown and Joe Bergeron available for this one. If they can’t get going against a fairly porous Duck run D, that’s just more pressure on Case McCoy.
Three more to remember
244: Career wins for Mack Brown. With one more, he’ll move into the top 25 all-time among all college football coaches.
71: The number of missed tackles Texas’ defense accounted for in the regular season. The Longhorns missed 112 last season.
Seven: Texas has won seven bowl games since the 2004 season, tied for most in FBS in that span.