Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Stats that matter: New Mexico St. vs. Texas
By Max Olson
Each week, HornsNation teams up with the ESPN Stats and Info crew to dig into the numbers that matter most and find three statistics which could make a big difference on Saturday. We begin with the season opener vs. New Mexico State (7 p.m. CT, Longhorn Network).
No. 1: 46-11
Manny Diaz and the Texas defense are preparing for the unknown in New Mexico State QB Andrew McDonald.
The average score of Texas’ 15 season openers under coach Mack Brown is 46-11. He’s won 13 straight openers, and the Longhorns are 78-7-2 all-time when beginning the season at home. Most of those 13 haven’t been close, as Texas has won by 30 or more in nine openers under Brown.
Still, as a college football aficionado, Brown is quick to point out that there are always Week 1 upsets. The thought of Texas being one of them provides enough of a scare that he makes sure his players don’t overlook their first foe. He was asked Monday if his goal is to see Texas play dominant in the opener. Brown said no. He just wants a win.
No. 2: 3 passes
Texas is preparing for the unknown this week as it gets set for a New Mexico State offense run by offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon. The fact the Longhorns played Brandon last fall when he was at Wyoming is a plus, but there’s another issue: We knows almost nothing about NMSU quarterback Andrew McDonald. He attempted three passes last season, competed one for three yards and took two sacks against Ohio. That’s all.
Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz said Monday the lack of film on McDonald had the Texas staff going back to look at McDonald’s film out of junior college. The former Arizona walk-on and son of USC All-American quarterback Paul McDonald threw for 4,266 yards and 50 scores in two years at Santa Ana College but backed up senior Andrew Manley in 2012.
No. 3: 81.5
New Mexico State’s defense put up bad numbers in nearly all phases last season. When a team goes 1-11, that’s usually the case. NMSU ranked among the 10 worst in FBS in yards per game, yards per play and points per game. No surprise there. But there’s another stat that should pique Longhorn fans’ interest.
Opposing quarterbacks averaged an adjusted QBR rating of 81.5 against NMSU, worst in the FBS. Just for context, the national average last season was 58.9.
When he took over, new head coach Doug Martin retained defensive coordinator David Elson. Whatever progress he’s made in his second season on the job will be tested right away by David Ash, who ranks No. 7 in the country among returning passers in adjusted QBR at 77.7 last season.
Three more to remember
.212: New Mexico State’s win percentage since 2005, worst in FBS over that span.
Six: The number of games NMSU’s defense gave up 500-plus yards of total offense in 2012. Only Baylor and Louisiana Tech permitted more 500-yard games last season.
446: Rushing yards New Mexico State gave up in its season finale against Texas State last year. NMSU ranked No. 113 in rushing defense in FBS.