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Inside the numbers for Texas

11/11/2011

AUSTIN, Texas -- Texas has made it this far -- six wins that is.

But where can the Longhorns go from here?

The Longhorns have four games left. Three of those games come against teams with winning records. Three of them are on the road. Three are against teams that either are or at one point were ranked in the Top 25. And two of them come against teams with rush defenses in the top 25 of FBS.

Of Texas’ six wins, only BYU is better than 5-4. And the Cougars gave Texas its toughest test 17-16 at DKR.

The other teams that Texas has beaten have a combined record of 20-25. Iowa State, Texas Tech and UCLA all have 5-4 records. Tech and ISU have losing conference records. Tech did pull the biggest upset of the season over Oklahoma. That was followed by Iowa State upsetting Tech. UCLA is 4-2 in the Pac-12 with a signature win over Arizona State.

The UCLA win looks decent now. By the end of the season, it is doubtful if the Tech one will have the same shine.

Taking this one step further, in looking at the overall defenses of the teams Texas has beaten, the numbers are somewhat alarming.

BYU is an extremely respectable 27th in overall defense. Again, that was the toughest and closest win of the year for Texas and it was at home. As for the others -- ISU (91st), UCLA (95th), Texas Tech (108th), Rice (105th) and Kansas is dead last in FBS at 120.

The logical argument here might be that Texas has become better as the season has progressed. The Longhorns are now better equipped to handle stiffer opponents because of their new found running game.

Good argument. It might just hold up too. But there are a few stats that lend credibility to the argument that Texas can’t run the table. The first is a simple look at the opponents’ records.

Three of the four have winning records. Two -- Kansas State and Baylor -- are in the BCS Top 25.

So by that measure, there is this to chew on: Missouri has lost four of its five games against teams currently in the BCS Top 25. Kansas State has lost both of its games to teams currently in the top six of the BCS. Texas A&M has lost three of its four to teams currently in the top 10 of the BCS. And two of Baylor’s three losses have come against teams currently in the top 15 in the BCS.

Now for the bright side, of the four teams remaining on the schedule, only two have a win over a Top 25 BCS team. The Aggies and the Wildcats have beaten Baylor, which sits at No. 25 in the BCS rankings.

So when Mack Brown says this: “We're back in that same position where we could win all four of these games or we could lose all four,” there is a definite truth to it.

Ditto for the statement he followed that with:

“We know college football is crazier than ever.”