Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Looking deeper at wins over 'ranked' foes
By Chris Low
Just about everybody keeps track of a team or coach's record against ranked opponents.
It's a statistic that can be skewed because if you play a ranked team in the first few weeks of the season that bombs the rest of the way, does that really count as a quality win? For example, Florida was a top-10 team in both polls heading into the 2013 season and finished 4-8.
The most accurate gauge if you're tracking wins against ranked opponents is to add up those wins against teams that finish the season ranked in the final polls. We at the SEC blog have done that over the last three seasons, and some of the results are telling.
No SEC coach has more wins over the past three seasons against teams that finished the season ranked than the Ol' Ball Coach.
South Carolina has the best record (12-3) against teams that finished the 2011-13 seasons ranked in either the Associated Press or USA Today coaches' polls. The Gamecocks were 5-0 last season and beat three teams -- Clemson, Missouri and UCF -- that finished in the top 10 in one of the final polls. Over the past three seasons, the Gamecocks are also an impressive 5-2 against top-10 teams in the final polls.
Only three SEC teams over the past three seasons have finished above .500 against teams that finished the season ranked nationally. In addition to South Carolina, Alabama is 8-4 during that stretch and LSU 9-5.
On the flip side, there are three SEC teams over the past three seasons that have failed to beat a team ranked nationally in the final polls -- Kentucky (0-13), Mississippi State (0-15) and Vanderbilt (0-12).
Even though the Commodores won nine games overall each of the past two seasons for the first time in history under former coach James Franklin, who's now at Penn State, they didn't beat a team either of those seasons that finished ranked in the final polls. Vanderbilt's last win over a team that finished the season ranked in the Top 25 came during the 2008 season, a 23-17 win over an Ole Miss team that finished 14th that year in the AP poll.
Alabama and Vanderbilt have played the fewest games against ranked opponents in the final polls over the past three seasons, each with 12 games. Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee have played the most, each with 17 games.
Nobody in the league has played more games against top-10 foes in the final polls over the past three seasons than Tennessee. The Vols are 1-12 with the lone win coming last season against South Carolina, which finished fourth nationally. LSU has six wins over top-10 teams in the final polls over the past three seasons, which is tops in the SEC during that span.
Marquee nonconference games can also be deceiving, especially with teams scheduling some of these games so far out. Alabama, for instance, has played a traditional power during the regular season every year Nick Saban has been there, but only one of those teams finished the season in the top-20 nationally. Virginia Tech finished 10th in both polls in 2009. Four others that the Tide have faced since Saban's arrival -- Clemson in 2008, Penn State in 2010, Penn State in 2011 and Michigan in 2012 -- were ranked in the top 20 at the time of the game but dropped out by season's end.
Below are the records for all 14 SEC teams over the past three seasons against teams that finished the season nationally ranked in one of the final polls. In parentheses are the records against top-10 foes.