Ohio State Buckeyes: Jake Duzey

Big Ten picks rewind: Week 8

October, 22, 2013
10/22/13
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Not much went according to plan in Week 8, a slate of likely blowouts that turned out to be surprisingly captivating, especially in both Ann Arbor and Columbus. Brian Bennett and I had the same set of winners, so there was no opportunity to gain ground.

We both ended up missing on one contest. As for those score predictions ... not good.

Week 8/Season record

Adam Rittenberg: 4-1, 55-9
Brian Bennett: 4-1, 54-10

Here's one final look at the Week 8 predictions we made and those of guest forecaster Micah Tweeten from St. Paul, Minn.

Let's rewind the tape ...

Minnesota at Northwestern
  • Brian Bennett's pick: Northwestern 35, Minnesota 20
  • Adam Rittenberg's pick: Northwestern 34, Minnesota 21
  • Actual score: Minnesota 20, Northwestern 17
  • 20-20 hindsight: Bennett nailed the Gophers' score and I came close, but we both expected Northwestern's offense to show up. Wildcats QB Kain Colter never played, as I thought he would, and QB Philip Nelson provided the spark for Minnesota's offense, not Mitch Leidner.
Purdue at Michigan State
  • Bennett's pick: Michigan State 34, Purdue 6
  • Rittenberg's pick: Michigan State 31, Purdue 7
  • Actual score: Michigan State 14, Purdue 0
  • 20-20 hindsight: We expected more offense from both teams, especially Michigan State, which mustered only one offensive score in the game. Bennett's prediction of three Connor Cook touchdown passes fell short as Cook struggled, and while Jeremy Langford (131 rush yards) stepped up, neither he nor Delton Williams reached the end zone (I had them for three combined touchdowns). My prediction of a first-half defensive touchdown proved true as LB Denicos Allen had a scoop and score.
Indiana at Michigan
  • Bennett's pick: Michigan 38, Indiana 28
  • Rittenberg's pick: Michigan 35, Indiana 27
  • Actual score: Michigan 63, Indiana 47
  • 20-20 hindsight: We weren't too far off on Michigan's margin of victory, but both offenses certainly exceeded our forecasts on a record-setting day at the Big House. Indiana QBs Nate Sudfeld and Tre Roberson both led first-half scoring drives, as Bennett predicted, but Michigan QB Devin Gardner (team record 584 yards of offense) blew past Bennett's projection (350 yards). My prediction of two first-half rushing touchdowns for Michigan's Fitzgerald Toussaint came true, and Indiana WR Cody Latimer (96 receiving yards, TD) wasn't too far off my prediction (120 receiving yards, 2 TDs).
Iowa at Ohio State
  • Bennett's pick: Ohio State 37, Iowa 17
  • Rittenberg's pick: Ohio State 42, Iowa 20
  • Actual score: Ohio State 34, Iowa 24
  • 20-20 hindsight: This turned out to be one of our better score predictions, although we were still both off by 10 or more points. Buckeyes RB Carlos Hyde became the first player to rush for a touchdown against Iowa this season, as I thought he would, and exceeded my predicted rushing total (125 yards) by 24 yards. Ohio State QB Braxton Miller came one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown shy of Bennett's prediction. Iowa received a boost from a tight end, but it was Jake Duzey (six catches, 138 yards, TD), not C.J. Fiedorowicz.
Wisconsin at Illinois
  • Bennett's pick: Wisconsin 31, Illinois 14
  • Rittenberg's pick: Wisconsin 34, Illinois 20
  • Actual score: Wisconsin 56, Illinois 32
  • 20-20 hindsight: We both expected Illinois to take an early lead, but the Badgers stormed out to a 21-0 advantage before the Illini steadied themselves a bit in the second quarter. Bennett nearly nailed Wisconsin's rushing total (he predicted 290 yards; the Badgers finished with 289), and Badgers RB James White finished two yards shy of my triple-digit prediction for both he and Melvin Gordon. TE Jacob Pedersen had three receptions, but none for touchdowns.

You've seen our picks. Now it's time to check on our guest picker, Micah.

Northwestern 31, Minnesota 17
Michigan State 34, Purdue 10
Ohio State 38, Iowa 24
Michigan 31, Indiana 21
Wisconsin 35, Illinois 18

Micah's picks mirrored ours, so he also went 4-1. He had similar score predictions, too, although he came closer on Ohio State-Iowa than we did, nailing the Hawkeyes' score on the dot. Like us, he expected much more offense from Michigan State and much more defense from Michigan, Indiana and Illinois. Not a bad result, though.

Interested in being this week's guest picker? Tell us why you should be the choice here and here (be brief and use "GUEST PICKS" in the message).

The top half of the Power Rankings remains virtually unchanged, as Big Ten kingpin Ohio State rallied to beat Iowa, Wisconsin stomped Illinois, and the Michigan schools held serve in vastly different ways (all defense for Michigan State, all offense for Michigan).

The changes come in the league's second tier, as Northwestern continues its shocking tumble after a home loss to Minnesota, which moves up three spots. Iowa actually moves up despite a loss, as we liked the Hawkeyes' game plan and execution against Ohio State. Indiana also holds steady after nearly winning a shootout at the Big House.

Let's take one final look at the Week 7 rankings.

Now for the fresh rundown ...

1. Ohio State (7-0, 3-0 Big Ten; last week: 1): Another test passed for Ohio State, which overcame a plucky Iowa team with a stellar second half behind quarterback Braxton Miller (222 pass yards, 2 TDs, 102 rush yards) and running back Carlos Hyde (149 rush yards, 2 TDs). The Buckeyes also survived the ejection of star cornerback Bradley Roby in the first quarter and limited Iowa's offense to one big play in the second half. The defense once again will be challenged this week as Christian Hackenberg, Allen Robinson and Penn State visit Columbus.

2. Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1; last week: 2): Ohio State retains its spot atop the rankings with a perfect record, but Wisconsin has looked like the Big Ten's most dominant team of late. After crushing Northwestern at Camp Randall Stadium, the Badgers went on the road and steamrolled Illinois, as running backs Melvin Gordon (142 rush yards, 3 TDs) and James White (98 rush yards, 2 TDs, 29 receiving yards, 1 TD) did their thing and Joel Stave had an extremely efficient performance (16 of 21 passing, 189 yards, 2 TDs). The second open week comes at a good time as linebacker Chris Borland must get healthy for the stretch run, which features some tricky games.

3. Nebraska (5-1, 2-0; last week: 3): The Huskers might be the Legends Division favorite at this point, as they get Michigan State at home. Quarterback Taylor Martinez should make his return from turf toe this week against Minnesota as Nebraska tries to keep building momentum before the season's defining month. Martinez needs some work before the schedule gets tougher, and the Huskers' offensive line plays its first game without standout guard Spencer Long.

4. Michigan State (6-1, 3-0; last week: 4): A shutout of Purdue wasn't surprising. Neither was another defensive touchdown, Michigan State's fifth of the season, courtesy of linebacker Denicos Allen. But Michigan State's offense took a step backward, as the line struggled to control Purdue's defensive front and Connor Cook completed only 13 passes for 107 yards. The Spartans will need to be sharper this week against Illinois and particularly when the schedule gets tougher in November.

5. Michigan (6-1, 2-1; last week: 5): We think Jeremy Gallon just caught another long pass. Gallon set a Big Ten single-game record with 369 receiving yards (second most in FBS history), while quarterback Devin Gardner set team records for pass yards (503) and total yards (584) and accounted for five total touchdowns. Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint added 151 yards and four touchdowns. Michigan needed all the offense to win a shootout with Indiana at the Big House. As for the defense? A problem for another day. Michigan has two weeks to prepare for its Nov. 2 showdown at Michigan State.

6. Penn State (4-2, 1-1; last week: 7): The off week came at a good time for Penn State after a physically and emotionally draining four-overtime win against Michigan. The Lions had more diversity in their passing game against the Wolverines and will need the same -- as well as strong run production -- to keep pace with Ohio State on Saturday in Columbus. Penn State has won two of its past three games at Ohio Stadium and could play spoiler down the stretch in Leaders Division play.

7. Iowa (4-3, 1-2; last week: 8): Credit Iowa for an excellent game plan coming off the open week. The Hawkeyes racked up 17 first-half points against Ohio State and controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Ultimately, better talent won out as Iowa couldn't keep pace with Miller, Hyde and the Buckeyes, but the Hawkeyes certainly could make some noise down the stretch in the wide-open Legends Division. Sophomore tight end Jake Duzey (6 receptions, 138 yards, 1 TD) gives Jake Rudock another weapon in the passing game. Iowa returns home this week to face sputtering Northwestern.

8. Minnesota (5-2, 1-2; last week: 11): The bye week clearly paid off for Minnesota, and so did a halftime pep talk from coach Jerry Kill, who made his presence felt at Ryan Field without being on the sideline. Minnesota dominated the line of scrimmage, as defensive tackle Ra'Shede Hageman, running back David Cobb and quarterback Philip Nelson, who relieved Mitch Leidner, stepped up in the final three quarters. The Gophers took advantage of a short-handed Northwestern team and overcame several bad calls to record a big road win. Up next: Nebraska at home.

9. Indiana (3-4, 1-2; last week: 9): The Hoosiers are high on entertainment value, boasting the Big Ten's best quick-strike offense and quite possibly the league's best group of wide receivers. But all those highlights and points still aren't translating to enough wins. It's the same movie with IU, with an A-plus offense and a D-minus defense, which surrendered an unacceptable 63 points and 751 yards to Michigan on Saturday. Tre Roberson was brilliant at Michigan and seemed to pass by Nate Sudfeld in the quarterback pecking order. But the defense remains the team's top priority entering the open week.

10. Northwestern (4-3, 0-3; last week: 6): The free-fall continues for a Wildcats team that was No. 2 in the power rankings just two weeks ago. Remember when Northwestern held a fourth-quarter lead against Ohio State? Key injuries certainly have played a role in Northwestern's downfall, but quarterback Trevor Siemian seems to be regressing and so is the offensive line. A bowl game suddenly is no guarantee for the Wildcats, who need to get Kain Colter and Venric Mark healthy and refocus for the stretch run. They visit Iowa this week.

11. Illinois (3-3, 0-2; last week: 10): The Illini needed a fast start coming off the open week against Wisconsin but stumbled out of the gate, falling behind 21-0 on their home field before course-correcting in the second quarter. Quarterback play wasn't the issue, as Nathan Scheelhaase and Reilly O'Toole combined to complete 25 of 32 passes for 318 yards, but two fumbles led to Wisconsin touchdowns and Illinois' defense couldn't slow down the Badgers. The Illini need at least one upset down the stretch to have a chance to reach six wins and a bowl.

12. Purdue (1-6, 0-3; last week: 12): Darrell Hazell's squad can build on Saturday's road performance against Michigan State, especially a Boilers defense that allowed just one score and repeatedly penetrated the backfield. The offense had several chances but couldn't finish drives in Spartans territory. Purdue needs to clean up its pass protection after allowing five sacks, but if Bruce Gaston Jr. and the defensive front continues to step up, a win could be coming down the stretch. The Boilers have a week off before hosting Ohio State.

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