Oregon Ducks

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Oregon Ducks: Nick Saban

Chip Kelly is not one to do things the conventional way, even leaving Oregon for the Philadelphia Eagles. He plays football by a different tempo and he lives by a different tempo. When you think he will zig, he zags. And he has a flair for the dramatic.

The big news on Jan. 7 was that Kelly had turned down his NFL suitors, including the Eagles. He didn't feel the need to comment then, which might be telling as to his reversal of course that would send shock waves across the Pac-12 and college football less than 10 days later.

Kelly went for the double shocker. It was shocking to learn he had decided to stay at Oregon after a flurry of interviews following a Fiesta Bowl victory over Kansas State. And now, three weeks before national signing day, it's shocking that ESPN's Chris Mortensen broke the news of his departure to the Eagles.

[+] EnlargeMark Helfrich
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports Ducks offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich, the heir apparent to Chip Kelly, doesn't have head-coaching experience.
Every indication is that offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich will be promoted to replace Kelly after the school negotiates some bureaucratic hiring hoops, as Oregon has a state law requiring public universities to interview at least one minority candidate for head-coaching positions. That was the word a year ago when Kelly nearly left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and USA Today has already reported the passing of the torch to Helfrich in the event of Kelly's departure.

Kelly was 46-7 over four seasons at Oregon, leading the Ducks on their most successful run in program history. The Ducks have played in four consecutive BCS bowl games, winning the past two, including their first Rose Bowl victory since 1917. Oregon has finished ranked in the top five for three consecutive seasons.

Kelly doesn't owe any more to Oregon. That success is enough. Fans shouldn't feel bitter or betrayed. Sure, the NCAA may shortly impose sanctions on the program over Kelly's involvement with street agent Willie Lyles. That is a black mark. But it's unlikely those penalties will be harsh enough to erase the brilliance that came before.

For Kelly, 49, this is an opportunity to test his considerable football acumen at the highest level. While he is known for his innovative, up-tempo, spread-option style of offense, know that Kelly is all about winning. He will adapt to his personnel and the differences in the NFL game. He won't, say, have his $18 million quarterback running the option 15 times a game.

And if things don't work out in the NFL, Kelly will have his pick of college jobs. It will be like Nick Saban's ill-fated tour in Miami. There's little risk for him in taking his NFL shot.

As for Oregon, there will be questions. While Helfrich will bring system and program continuity and should be able to retain a significant number of Ducks assistant coaches, including defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, he's not Kelly, nor does he have head-coaching experience.

Helfrich has been a quarterback coach at Boise State, Arizona State and Colorado -- he was the Buffs' offensive coordinator, too -- before Kelly hired him in 2009.

"He's really smart, really intelligent," Kelly said at Fiesta Bowl media day when asked why he made Helfrich his first offensive coordinator. "He brought a different perspective to our staff, because he had a different background. He wasn't a spread guy. I wanted to bring someone in who wasn't going to tell us what we already knew."

When asked what advice he'd give to Helfrich if he became a head coach, Kelly said he'd give him the same advice former Oregon coach Rich Brooks gave Mike Bellotti and Bellotti gave him: "Be yourself. You can't be someone else."

While Helfrich has a lighter touch -- more of a polished, people person -- than Kelly, that could mean little on the field and in the locker room. The question will be whether he can command the same respect and dedication that Kelly did. Can he maintain the Ducks' "Win the day" culture that was as efficient and productive as any in the country?

After the Fiesta Bowl win, Oregon's players were asked about Kelly potentially leaving and Helfrich taking over. They seemed uniformly confident that Helfrich would be up to the task.

"Expect the same," All-American running back Kenjon Barner said. "Nothing will change."

Said offensive lineman Kyle Long, who is expected to be an early-round NFL draft choice this spring: "Seamless transition. [Kelly and Helfrich are] cut from the same tree. I'll tell Duck Nation right now, Coach Helfrich is a brilliant coach. Great relationships with his players and other staff members. We all love Helf."

Kelly certainly left his successor a strong hand. The Ducks welcome back 15 position-player starters next fall, including star redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota. When the 2012 season ended, the Ducks were widely viewed as a top-five team in 2013, perhaps as high as No. 2 behind two-time defending national champion Alabama.

While it's nice to have a good team coming back, Kelly's successor also will inherit high expectations. Ducks fans are no longer satisfied with a top-25 team that plays in a nice bowl game. They expect Pac-12 championships. They expect to compete for national titles. And more than one loss is a disappointment.

If the 2013 Ducks go 10-3, a record that was outstanding before Kelly arrived, there will be immediate grumbling.

While Oregon fans are probably wringing their hands with worry, fans of 11 other Pac-12 teams are elated, most particularly those at Oregon State and Washington, the Ducks' most bitter rivals. Kelly had built a juggernaut, even if it was toppled atop the conference this fall by Stanford. Now there is an opportunity to change the balance of power in both the Pac-12 North Division and the Northwest.

When it was reported that Kelly was returning to Oregon nine days ago (Kelly had not talked about it), college football retained its West Coast equilibrium. There seemed to be renewed clarity, at least in the short term.

His departure leaves an uncertain void. While many believe Helfrich can capably fill that void, the uncertainty will remain until toe meets leather and the Ducks continue to produce the fancy-pants, winning product that Kelly brought to Eugene.
There was so much anticipation for Nov. 3, which was circled in red as soon as the 2012 schedules came out: Oregon at USC. "That," everyone said, "is going to be big."

It's two days after. While Ducks coach Chip Kelly won't pause and reflect, we can. And here's where we are: It feels like Oregon has its best team ... ever.

While the defense didn't walk away from a 62-51 win over USC feeling great about itself, the Ducks offense reached a new level of ludicrous speed against a quality Trojans defense that was simply extraordinary. Don't gloss over this: A USC defense had never given up so many points. Never. Nor had it ever given up 730 yards. Never! Heck, that was 107 yards more than a legendary Notre Dame squad piled up in 1946 while setting the mark that lasted 66 years.

[+] EnlargeMarcus Mariota
Charles Baus/Cal Sport Media via AP ImagesQuarterback Marcus Mariota has helped Oregon average over 54 points per game in 2012.
This Oregon offense, with a redshirt freshman quarterback, has significantly better numbers than the 2010 squad that played for the national title.

The Ducks rushed for 286.2 yards per game in 2010. They are rushing for 341.2 this season. They averaged 530.65 yards in 2010. They average 561.2 yards this season. They averaged 47 points per game in 2010. They average 54.33 this season. Their passing efficiency number in 2010 was 151.72. It's 159.94 this season.

This squad is younger on the offensive line than the 2010 crew, but it's far more physically gifted. And Marcus Mariota is a better passer and runner than Darron Thomas, notably more consistent and accurate. Thomas completed 61.5 percent of his passes in 2010. Mariota is completing 70.5 percent of his throws.

In fact, Mariota now ranks No. 1 in the Pac-12 and No. 7 in the nation in passing efficiency. The Pac-12 blog is officially retiring the word "test" from further stories on Mariota.

The one area where the 2010 Ducks looked superior was at receiver, but one of the overlooked revelations from the USC game was how well the receivers played. Josh Huff turned in perhaps his best game, catching six passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Seven different players caught passes.

Of course, it's slightly bogus to compare the 2010 and 2012 numbers at this point. There's a lot of football left. In fact, there might be the toughest football ahead, particularly the next three -- or four -- opposing defenses.

Oregon visits California on Saturday. You might recall that the only team to shut the Ducks offense down in 2010 was the Golden Bears playing at home. Further, Stanford and Oregon State are ranked Nos. 1 & 2 in both scoring and rushing defense in the Pac-12. In fact, Stanford is No. 1 and Oregon State No. 5 in the nation in run defense, and both are ranked in the nation's top 20 in scoring defense.

The odds are against the Ducks rolling up 730 yards against either. But, of course, we would have typed the same about the Trojans.

And then there could be a Pac-12 title game. At this moment, the favorite to win the South Division figures to be the winner of the USC-UCLA game on Nov. 17, but predicting how the South might go feels like a week-to-week thing.

It's easy to begin salivating over the idea of this Chip Kelly Oregon offense facing a Nick Saban Alabama defense for the national title. I will admit that among a gaggle of sportswriters in L.A. for the game, it came up more than once.

Still, Nov. 3 didn't set up like most expected. The Trojans failed to live up to their preseason projections. Nov. 3 was a measuring stick, a significant one, but not one that provides a decisive verdict.

What the Pac-12 became this year was deep, not top-heavy, as expected. Seven different teams have been ranked this season, and five are ranked in the latest BCS standings. No one saw the Beavers' rise coming, nor were Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA expected to be such tough outs.

So these Ducks only can be evaluated on the totality of the season, which probably is as it should be. Their ultimate achievement won't be owning Nov. 3. It will be running the table in a deep Pac-12.

Best Oregon team ever? That's my impression. But let's wait and answer that on Nov. 30.

Or on Jan. 7.

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