Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Oklahoma most overrated team since '08?
By David Ubben
The folks at Pollspeak are your go-to source for breaking down the college football polls, and they released their comprehensive list of which teams have been overrated and underrated most by preseason polls over the past five seasons.
Their metric is simple: The preseason ranking and final AP ranking are compared, and the final total is added up over five years, whether it be positive or negative.
Oklahoma checks in as the No. 1 most overrated team in college football in the past five years, with a total of minus-49 in the polls from 2008-12. There wasn't really any competition for the Sooners, who were 13 points ahead of the No. 2 team, USC, and 22 points ahead of No. 3, Georgia.
Only in 2010 did Oklahoma finish higher (No. 6) than it began (No. 7), and had two seasons, 2011 and 2009 where it finished at least 15 spots lower than it began.
West Virginia was the nation's sixth most overrated team, finishing with a minus-23 mark. That's mostly thanks to 2012 and 2008, when it began the season at No. 11 and finished outside of the polls.
Texas was No. 9 nationally, with a mark of minus-18, mostly because it began the 2010 season at No. 5 and finished outside the polls for a mark of minus-21 alone. The Longhorns were picked 15th last season and finished 19th, and began and ended outside of the polls in 2011.
Believe it or not, Kansas finished at No. 11 on the most overrated list, thanks to a fall from 14th to out of the polls in the 2008 season.
That shows something of a flaw in the pure "overrated" label, but I like the metric.
The most underrated teams?
Put another feather in your cap, K-State fans, but not before tipping that cap to TCU. The Wildcats are the nation's seventh-most underrated team with a mark of plus-21 in the polls over the past five years, but the Frogs took home the Big 12 title in that category. They were plus-28 and finished tied for second, well behind Stanford, at plus-36.
Here's how the whole Big 12 sorted out, including former and new Big 12 members.
Kansas State: +21
Texas A&M: +10
Texas Tech: +5
Oklahoma State: +5
West Virginia: -23
Good stuff. Note: Iowa State hasn't began or ended a season in the AP poll the past five years, so they weren't factored into Pollspeak's results. The same is true of former Big 12 member Colorado.