Big 12 predictions: bowl edition

December, 26, 2013
12/26/13
10:00
AM ET
I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and is having a happy holiday. I would have a happier holiday if I could emerge victorious over all you guest pickers.

Like Texas Tech, I suffered a late-season slide to fall behind in the standings. Like Tech, I’m hoping to make it all better here during the bowl season with a big win.

In keeping with the holiday spirit, I charitably selected a final guest picker whose team sadly did not qualify for a bowl. Justin’s submission:

I’m from Iowa and have been a Cyclone fan all my life (Look out for the Cyclones in next year’s bowl picks – we’re going to be a dangerous team in the next few years with Grant Rohach getting more comfortable in the pocket). I have been in the Air Force 11 years and stationed all over the place. My wife Kassie (a Duck fan) and I have been stationed in Turkey for two years and will be getting stationed back in the U.S. next July. I read the Big 12 blog daily and would love the chance to be the guest picker.

To the bowl picks:

SEASON RECORD

Trotter last game week: 1-1 (.500)

Guest picker (Bookworm Jason) last game week: 1-1 (.500)

Trotter overall: 55-19 (.743)

Guest picker overall: 43-14 (.754)

SATURDAY

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Kansas State 35, Michigan 30: The Wildcats surprisingly have lost five straight bowl games, including Bill Snyder’s last four bowl appearances. For that reason, this game appears to mean more to Kansas State than it does to Michigan, which had a disappointing season overall. More times than not, the more motivated team prevails in these midlevel bowl games. With Michigan QB Devin Gardner ailing and questionable for this game with turf toe, the Wildcats win a bowl game for the first time in 11 years, and defensive Ryan Mueller makes good on his promise to dump Gatorade on Snyder with the victory.

Justin’s pick: This will be the least exciting Big 12 game. Snyder will have the Wildcats ready for this game, but Michigan will be too much at the end with a game-winning field goal. Michigan, 27-24


MONDAY

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oregon 44, Texas 28: The Longhorns will play hard in coach Mack Brown’s final game. But Texas faced a version of Oregon (Baylor) just a few weeks ago, and got blown out. Just like they did in Waco, the Longhorns will hang around through halftime. But without the adequate offensive firepower, the game will eventually get away from them again.

Justin’s pick: Texas needed a miracle no-call from the refs to bat my Cyclones. Not even a miracle can save the Horns here. Texas will play with a lot of emotion. But talent wins over emotion every time. Oregon, 48-17

National University Holiday Bowl: Arizona State 48, Texas Tech 31: Other than Texas, no Big 12 team has endured more December drama than the Red Raiders. First, QB Baker Mayfield stunningly decided to leave the program. Then, coach Kliff Kingsbury’s right-hand man Sonny Cumbie bolted for TCU to coach quarterbacks. Now comes a difficult bowl matchup with a team that has legitimate top-10 talent. The only teams that have given Arizona State problems this season have been mashers (Stanford, Notre Dame, Stanford again). The one thing Tech cannot do is mash.

Justin’s pick: Tech comes out scoring in the first half, but Arizona State proves to be too much. Tech has a late surge but comes up short. Arizona State, 31-24


WEDNESDAY

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Baylor 56, Central Florida 33: The only comfortable favorite among Big 12 bowl teams, Baylor must win for the conference to have any chance at a successful bowl season. UCF, however, is better than people in Big 12 country think, with road wins at Penn State and Louisville, and a near upset of South Carolina. Blake Bortles is a big-time QB, and he has playmakers around him. But Baylor has a big-time QB, too, in Bryce Petty. And he has more playmakers around him, including Tevin Reese, who is back from a dislocated wrist. As a result, “America’s Top Offense” goes out with a bang.

Justin’s pick: A lot of people think Baylor is going to smash UCF, and I’m one of them. Bryce Petty has a huge day and the Baylor D smothers the Knights. Baylor 52-24


JAN. 2

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama 41, Oklahoma 17: Bob Stoops has often thrived when his team has been the underdog. Just ask Kansas State and Oklahoma State, whom the Sooners vanquished as road dogs the final two games of the season. Alabama, however, is not K-State and Oklahoma State. And unlike the 2008 Sugar Bowl, when the opponent was Utah, the Crimson Tide should be motivated for this one. The Sooners -- with their quarterback carousel -- struggle to move the ball against the Tide, and Alabama runs the ball at will against an Oklahoma run defense that’s been suspect all year.

Justin’s pick: As much as I love the Big 12, this isn't an Oklahoma team that can hang with a team many feel is still the best team in the country. AJ McCarron gets hot and throws all over Oklahoma's secondary. Alabama, 38-17


JAN. 3

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State 31, Missouri 30: Coach Mike Gundy has been terrible against Oklahoma. But he’s been stellar in bowl games, with three straight bowl wins and a 5-2 record overall. Missouri’s defensive line has gotten plenty of publicity this season, and deservedly so. But Oklahoma State’s defense has been prolific, too. The Cowboys also boast the perfect cornerback to match up with Dorial Green-Beckham in Justin Gilbert, who might be a first-round pick in the spring. Quarterback Clint Chelf also bounces back from a subpar Beldam performance, and the Cowboys land the Big 12 a solid victory over the SEC.

Justin’s pick: Oklahoma State can put up big numbers on any team, but Mizzou has proven itself by beating up on the SEC. The Cowboys won’t be able to handle the pressure from Missouri’s defense. Mizzou, 41-38.

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