FSU Seminoles: The Big Board
In most cases, the tea-leaf reading hasn't been all that tough, but at a recent booster club event in Pensacola, Fisher had an interesting statement that might undermine at least one of those assumptions.
During the Q&A portion of the event, a fan asked Fisher to compare outgoing quarterback EJ Manuel with the presumed 2013 starter, Jameis Winston. His answer was a bit surprising.
Stacy Revere/Getty ImagesFSU coach Jimbo Fisher said quarterback Jameis Winston might throw better than EJ Manuel.What's so surprising is that Fisher's analysis is at odds with the popular perception that Manuel's greatest asset was his high completion percentage, while Winston has the athleticism to allow FSU to open up its offense.
As Winston's case to become the starting quarterback has grown, so have the arguments from fans who think Fisher can embrace a more wide-open style that allows his quarterback to run with the ball early and often. In fact, the comparisons between Winston and Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel have already begun -- even if they're not entirely fair.
But what Fisher's assessment of Winston's athleticism indicates is something that probably should have been fairly obvious even before: His offense isn't going to change, regardless of which player is starting at quarterback.
Even if you want to argue with Fisher's assumption that Manuel was the better athlete, it's worth noting that QB runs were never a big part of Florida State's game plan. Here's the breakdown during Fisher's six years as offensive coordinator, which included seasons with Drew Weatherford, Christian Ponder and Manuel.
The Big Board: Few immediate impacts 
The final results should all be known Wednesday. But really, that's just the beginning.
Once national signing day is over, the focus again turns to the field. Since Fisher took the helm at FSU in 2010, there haven't been too many incoming freshmen to make a particularly big impact on game days.
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Now that the dust has settled from a prolonged coaching search and the departures of a few key juniors, the attention of Florida State fans will no doubt turn to what promises to be the dominant storyline from now until -- well, really, there's no end in sight.
For Jimbo Fisher and the Seminoles, the next few months (at least) will be all about the quarterback, and in what might be both a blessing and a curse, there is no shortage of contenders for the job.
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The hire would come as a minor surprise, given Pruitt's lack of experience as a coordinator and the 3-4 base defense run at Alabama, but he's a rising star in the profession and a strong recruiter. That could loom large given the amount of turnover Florida State figures to endure on defense this offseason.
In addition to the coaching staff, which must replace Mark Stoops and D.J. Eliot -- as well as linebackers coach Greg Hudson, who could move to an administrative position -- FSU will be looking to revamp the bulk of its defense.
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The Big Board: Distributing the ball 
The case for FSU's receivers was air tight: Rashad Greene would be a year older and healthy for a full season after missing four games in 2012; Kelvin Benjamin would be on the field and his size would make him a huge weapon; Willie Haulstead would finally return from a concussion that kept him out all of 2011 after being the team's leading receiver in 2010; juniors Kenny Shaw, Jarred Haggins and Greg Dent were ready to come into their own.
Really, the only question was how EJ Manuel would manage to find enough footballs to ensure all these weapons were given sufficient opportunities to make plays.
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While fans flooded Twitter and message boards with those concerns, the players were saying the same things on the sideline.
"You just have flashbacks in those moments," safety Lamarcus Joyner said, "but you always remind yourself championships are not given away."
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The Big Board: Managing missed tackles 
For an FSU defense that hasn't faced a true option team in years, that may be a tall order, but it's also not its only concern.
As Florida racked up rushing yards and converted nearly half its third-down tries last week, one problem continued to haunt the Seminoles: Missed tackles.
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The Big Board: FSU's punting problems 
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- The narrative for Saturday's game has already been sketched out by most fans and pundits, and the rationale is reasonable.
Both teams have stellar defensive units, and last year's ugly 21-7 FSU win provides the template for how this year's game will unfold. The Seminoles have the luxury of a more stable quarterback situation, but Florida's defensive front will be the most athletic EJ Manuel has faced. The Gators will put the onus on their running game, but FSU rarely allows much on the ground.
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The Big Board: Plan C on punt returns 
The loss has been minimal in the secondary. Ronald Darby and Nick Waisome have proven to be capable replacements, and the defense has chugged along with few setbacks worth noting. On special teams, however, there remains a gaping void caused by Reid's absence.
Florida State will head to Maryland this week with yet another new plan for fixing the disaster that has been the punt return game, a situation where Jimbo Fisher has asked relatively little, and the results have still fallen short.
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Three months later, Fisher's conservative projections appear unnecessary. Florida State's defense has largely lived up to those lofty expectations.
The Seminoles are tops in the nation in total defense, allowing just 227 yards per game. They're third in scoring defense and rushing defense, with top-ranked Alabama the only team ahead in both categories. No team in the country has allowed fewer passing yards per attempt, and the 77 percent success rate on third down isn't just the best mark in the nation, but a number that matches up as one of the best in recent history.
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With a Thursday night game against Virginia Tech looming, and FSU's place atop the Atlantic Division standings hanging in the balance, there didn't figure to be much time to deviate from the preparations.
"I feel like it's not a break because of the Thursday game, but you've just got to be tough," Nick Waisome said before FSU dominated Duke in the last of nine straight games without an off week. "It's part of the game."
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The Big Board: Greene out as punt returner 
It was Greene's third fumble of the season in his first year as the full-time punt returner, and while none have cost Florida State a game, it proved to be one too many for Jimbo Fisher.
"The punt returns we've got to get fixed. We've had too many there," Fisher said. "We'll see if [Greene] can catch it, and if not, you've got to swap and put somebody else in there."
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Melina Vastola/US PresswireEJ Manuel had a solid game throwing downfield against Boston College.It was a stark contrast from a week earlier, when Manuel rarely looked downfield and Florida State's offense sputtered in the second half, failing to score as NC State engineered a dramatic, come-from-behind win.
"I wanted to be aggressive as a quarterback, and I told that to Coach Fisher," Manuel said. "I told him I wanted to attack these guys and allow our receivers to make plays. He opened it up for us, and we had a great game."
A week after earning heavy criticism for his conservative approach against NC State, Fisher called easily the most aggressive passing game of the season.
Manuel attempted 10 passes of 20 yards or more in Saturday's win over BC, according to ESPN Stats and Info. If we factor out his final three throws against NC State -- desperate downfield attempts in the final seconds -- Manuel had attempted just 19 throws of 20 yards or more in the first six games of the season combined.
But the difference in Saturday's outcome wasn't just about scheme or play-calling. The big offensive numbers against Boston College were built upon better protection up front and better execution from the quarterback.
"It's going through those reads, being able to take a five-step drop, hitch up and throw the ball downfield," Manuel said. "It takes time. I told those guys in the huddle, 'Give me a second-and-a-half and we'll get this ball down the field.' "
So, why did it all work so well against Boston College after things went so horribly wrong against NC State?
Protection -- particularly from the two tackle positions -- was crucial.
"When you go short corners and you have two guys that can handle the corners, it becomes a much easier task to do things and get the ball more vertical and get the ball down the field," Fisher said. "No matter how you say you want to throw the ball down the field, you have to have time. And you say, well, block them all up -- but then you end up double covered. You have to get your guys out and block."
We wrote last week about how NC State thwarted Fisher's attempts at an effective passing game, and the numbers against Boston College illustrate the alternative.
It's all fairly intuitive in retrospect, but the numbers speak to the importance of the offensive line in aggressive play-calling. The bottom line: Manuel's best games have come when he's faced the least pressure.
(*Courtesy ESPN Stats and Info.)
The big plays early set a perfect precedent, and BC made the rest of the game fairly easy for the offense. There were few blitzes, as BC chose to keep extra players in coverage, and that opened the door for both Manuel and the FSU running game.
Boston College represented something of a perfect storm for FSU -- improved blocking, better throws from the quarterback, a soft pass rush and some aggressive play-calling. Add it all up, and it was a recipe for a huge offensive performance.
The question now is whether Miami -- which has its share of problems in the secondary -- chooses BC's approach or the more aggressive style that worked for NC State. More importantly, what happens to Florida State when it faces a team (such as Florida) that can do both?
The Big Board: Facing the pressure
But while fans wanted to see Fisher take a few final shots down the field, putting the dagger through the hearts of NC State, the onus for the conservative approach may have fallen more on the blocking up front.
"We could say we could throw it, but then you've got the possibility -- we'd had a few sacks in blitz that we hadn't picked up," Fisher said. "You're up six points, so do you take a chance on [EJ Manuel getting hit]? It goes back to philosophical things at the time and the flow of the game."
Indeed, Fisher was right to be concerned about Manuel's ability to sit in the pocket and make a play.
While Florida State's offensive line has shown marked improvement from a year ago -- particularly in the running game -- consistency in pass protection has been an ongoing concern.
Here's a game-by-game review of Manuel's passing attempts under duress:
(Courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info.)
There have been ups and downs, but through the first five games, Manuel was largely able to steer clear of constant pressure. Against NC State, however, the problems were widespread. He faced pressure on nearly 40 percent of his passing attempts -- which includes three desperation throws at the end when NC State had no reason to rush -- was sacked a season-high four times, and in turn, Florida State rarely threw the deep ball.
"They put a lot of pressure on our offense and we didn’t make them pay," Manuel said. "It’s not the reason we lost but it’s one of them."
There were plenty of explanations for the problems with pass protection.
For one, starting right tackle Menelik Watson missed the game with flu symptoms, and Daniel Glauser got the start in his place. Glauser also started against Wake Forest, and those two games accounted for seven of the 10 sacks FSU has allowed this year. It's perhaps not surprising then that Bobby Hart has taken first-team reps at right tackle during practice this week.
While the rest of the offensive line had a handful of mistakes, too, some of the onus falls on the backs and tight ends who failed to pick up blocks, and some of the onus falls on Manuel for failing to read the blitz and react accordingly.
Fisher said there was only one blitz that Manuel clearly read incorrectly, but there were other throws he failed to complete in the face of pressure -- including a screen to Chris Thompson, a pass to Nick O'Leary and a deep ball to Kelvin Benjamin.
"They were blitzing a whole lot, swarming the quarterback," Rashad Greene said. "Opportunities were there with what we wanted. We just couldn't get it executed."
Here's Manuel's numbers against the blitz from Saturday's game, broken down by half:
(Courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info.)
Manuel said he felt he played a "pretty good" game, admitting he missed on a few potentially big plays.
But when a defense that allowed nearly 1,200 yards in two games against Tennessee and Miami pitches a shutout in the second half, there's certainly more to it than a few mistakes by the offense.
In fact, compare Manuel's numbers vs. the blitz from the first five games of the season to his production Saturday, and there's a clear difference.
(Courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info.)
That last item is particularly noteworthy. Manuel had faced the blitz on 29 pass attempts (23 percent) in the first five games of the season and was sacked just three times. He faced it a whopping 16 times (48 percent) on Saturday, and was sacked four times.
NC State had a game plan -- go after Manuel with force -- and it worked. Other teams are certainly going to follow suit.
Fans weren't pleased with Fisher's answers during Monday's news conference, but his explanation is no less accurate. The problems were both widespread and slightly out of character. Blame falls on the offensive line, on the running backs, on the quarterback and, yes, on the play calling. But at the same time, the line had shown improvement, the backs had blocked well, and Manuel had looked sharp in the face of pressure prior to Saturday's game.
Whether finding solutions to a number of small problems is easier than fixing one huge problem remains to be seen, but the Seminoles are at least giving lip service to the idea this week.
Whether things change moving forward, however, will be the real answer to all those tough questions.
"We've got to figure a way to get it done, and I'm sure that teams will watch NC State and see what they did to us, and it'll open up a can of worms," center Bryan Stork said. "We're going to see more looks like that. Boston College runs a lot of stuff like that, too. I guess we'll be that much more ready for it."
That's how to win a road game, Manuel said.
"When we get an opportunity to do that to an opposing crowd, that makes us feel good," Manuel said.
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