But if that doesn’t happen, well, it could get very complicated. Because Ellsbury is hitting .242, with a .307 OBP -- among leadoff hitters with at least 50 plate appearances in the No. 1 spot, he ranks 31st -- and if this continues, there will be a time when his interests and those of the Red Sox will diverge. It’s not going to be today, it’s not going to be tomorrow, but eventually, it will happen.
Ellsbury demonstrated how good he could be in 2011, when he racked up 83 extra-base hits, 119 runs, 105 RBIs and 39 stolen bases, finishing second to Justin Verlander in the AL MVP race. But injuries limited him to 74 games last season, and in those, he hit .271, with a .313 OBP. So what he has done at the plate in 2013 more closely resembles the player he was in 2010 and 2012 than who he was in 2011.
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Cabrera watches some video of opposing pitchers before each game, but what he really wants to see is the pitcher throwing at the outset of a game -- in his warm-ups, in working to the first hitters of the game. Cabrera feels as if he’ll glean from that small sample so much usable information: how hard the pitcher is throwing that day, what pitches are working for him that day, how the pitcher might try to beat Cabrera that day.
"Small sample size" has become a common performance observation in dismissing particular results. It can be applied to players in September and October, but generally speaking, it’s probably heard more this time of year, as we try to wrap our brains around Josh Hamilton hitting .200 and Carlos Gomez hitting .360. "Small sample size" is employed as a cautionary phrase, as in: Be careful, don’t believe everything you see because it’s not really representative.
But here’s the funny thing about that. Small sample sizes are used in decision-making dozens and dozens of times during each game, before each game, after each game.
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ARLINGTON, Texas -- If there’s an opportunity before the postgame on-the-field interview on "Sunday Night Baseball," I’ll give the player a quick heads-up about what questions I will be asking, especially if it’s anything out of the ordinary. It’s not standard operating procedure to ask the guy who got the decisive hit for the winning team about a player on the losing team.
So before the green light came on, I mentioned to David Murphy that I intended to ask him about Miguel Cabrera’s remarkable "Sunday Night Baseball" performance, when the Tigers third baseman clubbed three home runs.
Murphy smiled. “Good,” he said, “because I was going to talk about him anyway.” He went on to discuss how easily everything seems to come for Cabrera at the plate.
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ARLINGTON, Texas -- Since Major League Baseball and the players' association agreed to a new labor deal and MLB followed that up with record-setting television contracts, the clubs -- with money burning a hole in their front-office pockets -- have been aggressive in signing the best talent to long-term deals. Just ask Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander, as well as others who’ve taken less.
One of the ripple effects, however, is that the ranks of the best of the summer trade market have been thinned out. Yes, more starting pitchers will become available as the summer goes along, and some teams will find gems -- remember the Tigers’ aggressive trade for Doug Fister -- but generally, the market for starting pitchers is shaping up to be limited. Here’s how you might rank them as of today:
1. Scott Feldman, Chicago Cubs
Feldman has had many peaks and valleys during his career, but right now he is getting excellent results. Opponents are batting .214 against him this season, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive outings -- including his 6 2/3 innings of scoreless ball that he threw against the Mets on Saturday. His use of his curveball has climbed markedly, to complement his sinker and cutter; there is an effective range of velocity of about 14 miles per hour for him these days. From ESPN Stats & Info: how Scott Feldman won Saturday, in allowing no runs in 6 2/3 innings:
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Piece by piece, the Minnesota Twins are getting better. It’s just that you can’t really see it yet -- not at Target Field, anyway.
The big league Twins have been something of a surprise in how effective their pitching has been, and Minnesota begins today two games under .500, at 18-20, in last place in the packed AL Central. But it’s almost impossible to overstate how well the pieces have been coming together in the Twins’ player development, even beyond the emergence of Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia, outfielders who have made their respective major league debuts this season.
If you want to know how well third-base prospect Miguel Sano is progressing at Class A Fort Myers, well, let’s put it this way: He has been to the Florida State League this year what Miguel Cabrera has been to the American League, hitting .368, with a .465 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage of 1.142. There is a presence about Sano, who just turned 20 last week, and a leadership quality, says Twins assistant GM Rob Antony. Sano, born in the Dominican Republic, has been aggressively working on his English and insists on doing his interviews in his second language, Antony says. “Even though they might be in broken English,” said Antony, “he knows that’s important.”
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It was an all-around tough day for the Tampa Bay Rays, who saw Fernando Rodney blow up in the ninth inning and blow a lead to the Red Sox, this just a little while after they placed Cy Young Award winner David Price on the disabled list.
For an organization that maintains a disciplined, big-picture view of operations, the Price situation is now completely muddled. Manager Joe Maddon spoke about Price’s DL stint through a glass-half-full prism, about this being a relatively minor injury that would only cost the left-hander two or three starts. But then, Maddon would be the one guy in the lifeboat perpetually telling everybody else there is land just over the horizon; it’s part of what makes him a perfect fit as the manager for a team with a relatively minuscule payroll.
In a perfect world for the Rays, Price would have zipped through the American League in the way that he did in 2012, dominating hitters and contending for another Cy Young Award. In a perfect world for the Rays, he would have led them into the postseason, thrown well in October, enabling them to market him with his trade value at its highest.
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I heard a great description of Matt Harvey’s curveball the other day from a longtime evaluator, and it really would apply to Clayton Kershaw’s curveball as well: Even when a hitter is looking for it, even when he plans to swing at it, even when he knows it’s coming, it really doesn’t matter -- he still can’t hit it.
Over and over again, this is what happened to the Nationals’ hitters Tuesday night, because over and over again, Kershaw pitched with the same pattern and there was nothing Washington was able to do to stop him. He’d get ahead in the count and then finish them off with a curveball; check out Tyler Moore 25 seconds into this video, and it goes from there.
Kershaw threw a career-high 132 pitches in shutting out the Nationals over 8 2/3 innings in a 2-0 Dodgers win.
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So Harper either wasn’t cognizant that he had sprinted onto new ground or else, more likely, he simply ignored all the sensory information gathered in his pursuit of A.J. Ellis’ long fly ball. Harper collapsed onto the warning track and had to come out of the game and get 11 stitches. He was bleeding all over the place, his manager said.
Harper is one of the best young players we have ever seen, and his habit of going all out all the time is why he’s fun to watch -- and why the Nationals should be concerned, and probably already are.
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Sale is the biggest difference-maker on the White Sox, the new face of the franchise, with a body and delivery that reminds some evaluators of Randy Johnson -- and Sunday night, he had Big Unit-type stuff.
I have been fortunate enough to cover two of the 23 perfect games thrown in major league history -- David Wells in 1998 and David Cone in 1999 -- and I thought I was seeing another Sunday night. Sale, pitching in short sleeves on a cold night, had overpowering stuff in the early innings, his fastball crowding right-handed hitters at 95 mph and his slider making their knees buckle.
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She could play a mean game of badminton, drawing on her years of tennis. She was a heck of a writer, with her work appearing in everything from The New York Times to Hoard’s Dairyman to Reader’s Digest. Her penmanship was absurdly perfect. She had a great sense of humor, which came through in the ad copy she wrote. She had a gift for working with the calves on our farm, especially those who had been born sick or vulnerable in the Vermont winters. Mary Ann Lincoln was a diligent gardener, before she passed away unexpectedly seven years, one month and 46 days ago.
But what she was best at was being a mom, which meant raising four kids who had completely different interests and working to help them along on their respective paths. She had only cursory knowledge of baseball -- she could recount the rise of the ’69 Mets, her favorite team, and she knew who the third baseman was in the Tinker-Evers-Chance infield, as a matter of necessary trivia.
Mostly, however, she didn’t like professional sports, and didn’t really understand my growing obsession with them as I got older, which is why she held firm to her rule of no television in the house until shortly before I enrolled at college.
But when I was 8 years old, she bought me my first baseball book, “The Baseball Life of Sandy Koufax.” The following summer, she bought me two packs of baseball cards at the Barnard General Store -- the first card was that of Gary Sutherland, I believe, the second of Lee May -- and this really cemented my interest in sports. It was an event which mostly brought chaos to her life, because I tended to leave my growing collection of thousands of cards all over the house, at a time when she was raising my infant brother and sister, Sam and Amelia.
None of my siblings liked sports, and my mom couldn’t imagine why in the world I would want to spend all of the money I got for my daily chores -- $20 a month -- on baseball cards every spring. But she’d always honor the requests, picking up the boxes of Topps cards at Floyd’s General Store every Sunday morning, and adding The Boston Globe to our pile of Sunday papers because I wanted to read Peter Gammons’ notes column.
On the morning of April 9, 1974, I came down before dawn to do my morning chores and found a handwritten note from her on the kitchen table, describing in detail the scene that had occurred in Atlanta the night before. Hank Aaron had broken Babe Ruth’s career record for home runs, she wrote, noting how loudly the crowd had cheered. She had listened to the news on the radio the night before and knew that I would want to know.
When I started writing for newspapers, she was a precise editor, nudging me to get better -- and was a perfect audience for a young writer, because I knew that if I could write a story that caught her attention, as a very casual fan, then I had something. Writing for baseball nerds like myself would never be a problem, but to write something that my mom liked, well, that meant the piece could have a broader appeal.
For Christmas in 2005, she gave me a box of baseball-themed New Yorker cartoon cards. I sent her a thank you note using one of them.
But I have kept the rest, on my desk, the last of many gifts my mom bestowed.
Happy Mother’s Day, everybody.
News and notes
The day after Shelby Miller retired 27 straight batters in his start, Adam Wainwright threw a two-hitter against the Rockies -- which excited the stats guys at both the Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN:
1. Wainwright’s no-hit bid of 7 1/3 innings was the longest of his career; his previous long was 5 2/3 innings against the Royals on June 13, 2007.
2. Wainwright has pitched well against the Rockies in the past:, compiling a 1.17 ERA against them.
How Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright shut out the Rockies:
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The look and tone that Angels manager Mike Scioscia aimed at the umpires in Houston on Thursday night reminded you of a third-grade teacher admonishing students over a paper airplane thrown across the room.
Scioscia’s language, however, was a little bit more PG-13 than elementary school.
“You gotta be s------- me,” Scioscia said, staring out at the umpires with incredulity.
We still don’t know why the umpires allowed Houston manager Bo Porter to relieve Wesley Wright without the left-hander having faced a single hitter; Fieldin Culbreth would not give an explanation for the call that was made, as Alden Gonzalez writes.
Based on what Porter and Scioscia said after the game, the switch did not involve an injury to Wright. It may well be that the umpires botched a basic rule that is used at every level from Little League to the majors. If a pitcher is summoned into a game as a reliever, then Rule 3.05 (b) applies:
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There could be explanations. Maybe the television that the umpires have in Cleveland to review home runs is an old black-and-white from 1957 and has a problem with its horizontal hold. Maybe the remote control ran out of batteries.
Maybe there is some Magic Baseball thing going on, like the Magic Bullet Theory: The ball stops in mid-air, changes direction, goes down, changes direction again … back and to the right … back and to the right … back and to the right…
The evidence is clear, and action is needed. Immediately. As in, the next few hours. The Athletics are in Cleveland and will play the Indians in a noon game today, and what needs to happen is for the commissioner to use his powers and overturn the call of Angel Hernandez’s crew, and replay it from the point of the disputed home run. The score would be 4-4, it would be the ninth inning. Then, after the resolution of that game, the two teams can play the regularly scheduled game.
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For five years, Carlos Gomez says, he listened to others tell him what he needed to do to be successful. "They wanted me to hit line drives, hit the ball on the ground," he said Tuesday, over the phone. "They treat me like one of the fast guys."
Gomez's image of himself as a player was different from that. Oh, sure, he has big-time speed, but when Gomez played winter ball, he would swing very hard and try to drive the ball and felt he was a very different player, and a better player. He felt he knew why.
As he came back from a broken collarbone late in 2011, he met with manager Ron Roenicke and talked about the player he felt he could be. "I'm going to try something different," Gomez said to Roenicke. "I've been trying this for five years, and it doesn't work. I want to be me."
Many at-bats later, Roenicke complimented Gomez on his adjustment, on understanding what type of player he needed to be, because clearly, something is very different; now, something works, in a way that it hadn't in the years he was with the Twins and at the outset of his time with the Brewers. Gomez felt he was at an important crossroads, changed, and now he's better for it.
"I've taken my ability and shown what kind of player I can be," said Gomez, who clubbed 19 homers last year, among 42 extra-base hits, and is now hitting a league-high .364, with 8 doubles, 2 triples and 6 homers.
Gomez spoke Tuesday about two drills that have helped -- two drills he does regularly. A lot of hitters focus on taking the ball to the opposite field, but Gomez has a drill that forces him to pull the ball. Brewers hitting coach Johnny Narron sets up behind a screen about 10 to 15 feet away from Gomez and flip balls directly at his hip with some pace, and this requires Gomez to swing quickly, efficiently and hit the ball before it hits him. Sometimes, he says, the ball hits him early in the drill.
In the other drill that Gomez described, he stands at home plate, bat in hand, and watches about 30 to 50 pitches -- only watching. He doesn't swing. He focuses on tracking the ball, on following the spin of the ball, so that when he's in a game, he is locked in on the flight of the ball and can react to it better.
When in games, Gomez tries to hit the ball as far as he can to straightaway center field, and through this approach, the counsel of others (including Manny Ramirez), and his own vision of what he is, he has found success.
Gomez helped the Brewers end their losing streak. Gomez's contract is looking wise now, writes Tom Haudricourt.
Around the league
• It's hard to imagine a more scary moment in a game than we saw Tuesday night, when J.A. Happ took a line drive off the side of his head. There was a sickening thud and it hits home, as R.A. Dickey explains within this Brendan Kennedy piece.
This will renew conversation about whether there is some equipment that could be put in place to protect pitchers -- most notably, a cap lined with some sort of protective covering, as has been discussed.
After Happ was hurt, the game seemed irrelevant, writes Tom Jones.
• We had Indians manager Terry Francona on the podcast, and he told a couple of stories that became legend with the "Sunday Night Baseball" crew: The Zipper Mishap, and separately, The Target Pants Story. And we talked a lot about the Indians.
Francona said to me in spring training that he was really impressed with Zach McAllister, and Tuesday night, McAllister showed why.
• So the movement has started to line up Matt Harvey as the All-Star Game starter in Citi Field, because, well, he's pretty much unhittable. His outing against the White Sox Tuesday night was Goodenesque. He joined Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson as the only pitchers since 1900 to pitch nine innings, strike out at least 12, allow one or fewer hits and get a no-decision.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Harvey dominated:
A. He got 20 of his 27 outs, including nine strikeouts, on pitches on the outer third of the plate or further outside. A career-high 63 percent of his pitches were outer-third. Of the 13 right-handed batters he retired, 11 came on outer-third pitches (see image).
B. Harvey retired the first 20 hitters he faced and threw a first-pitch strike to 16 of them. The first 2-0 count Harvey went to came to Adam Dunn, the batter after Alex Rios' infield single broke up the perfect-game bid.
C. He started ahead 0-1 to 17 of 28 batters and threw first-pitch strikes to 20. Rios' hit came after an 0-1 count, but for the season hitters are 9 for 102 (.088) against Harvey after starting behind 0-1, the lowest average against any starting pitcher this season.
D. For the first time in his career, Harvey did not allow a "well-hit" ball, as judged by the Inside Edge scouting service.
E. The White Sox put nine of Harvey's off-speed pitches in play and hit eight on the ground. A season-high 66 percent of his off-speed pitches were down in the zone or below it (season average entering was 57 percent).
The Mets won in a walk-off, as Jorge Arangure writes.
• The Reds frolicked after back-to-back homers in the bottom of the ninth inning beat Craig Kimbrel, a huge win.
From ESPN Stats & Info: This is the only the second time in the past 30 years that teammates have hit two-out, back-to-back game-tying and walk-off homers. The other instance was June 1, 2004 when the Braves' Nick Green hit a game-tying homer and J.D. Drew hit the walk-off homer. The last time the Reds did it was Aug. 27, 1977, when Dan Driessen tied the score and Johnny Bench hit a walk-off homer against the Phillies.
The win was No. 1,600 for Dusty Baker, who passed Tommy Lasorda to take over 18th place on the all-time wins list for managers.
• The Padres continue to build momentum, as Corey Brock writes, and were helped along by a weird home run.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Red Sox moved Felix Doubront to the bullpen and installed Allen Webster into the rotation.
2. Junichi Tazawa has taken over as the Red Sox's closer.
3. Victor Martinez says he'll do what the Tigers need him to do when playing in NL parks.
4. Matt Adams is back and ready to go.
5. The White Sox have a couple of guys coming back and are pondering their options.
Dings and dents
1. The Phillies had no information on Roy Halladay.
2. James McDonald landed on the disabled list.
3. Neil Walker is close to coming back, writes Travis Sawchik.
4. The Yankees have $80 million worth of talent rehabbing in Tampa, as Anthony McCarron writes. Kevin Kernan thinks the Yankees should give A-Rod a chance.
5. Brian Roberts is going to see a specialist.
6. The Red Sox lost two players on one play.
7. Vinnie Pestano landed on the disabled list, and was replaced by Nick Hagadone in a hurry, as Paul Hoynes writes.
8. Dustin McGowan is finding some success.
9. Troy Tulowitzki is not worried about his injury.
10. Josh Reddick is headed to the disabled list, and he's got some ugly history with this kind of thing, as Susan Slusser writes.
11. Zack Greinke continues to make progress, as Dylan Hernandez writes.
12. Henderson Alvarez could be out until June.
Tuesday's games
1. Kyle Kendrick was The Man against the Giants.
2. The Rockies got some great pitching.
3. The softer portion of the Pirates' schedule has begun, and Pittsburgh shut down Seattle, with a lot of help from Andrew McCutchen.
4. The Yankees were shut down.
5. It was a close game; it was the Orioles. You know the rest.
6. K.C. had more bullpen miseries.
7. Scott Diamond threw a gem.
8. For the Dodgers, the losing continues.
9. Once again, the Rays blew a lead.
10. Craig Kimbrel and the Braves had their guts ripped out. Kimbrel already has allowed as many homers as he did all of last year, and maybe there will be a conversation about mixing his pitches a little more: According to FanGraphs, he's throwing a lot more fastballs than last year -- by about 10 percent. Both homers were on fastballs -- first Mesoraco and then Choo.
AL East
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It's as if somebody is sticking pins into the class of would-be free-agent pitchers:
Roy Halladay: Out indefinitely with a shoulder problem; he'll be examined today. His contract with the Phillies is set to expire this fall.
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SAN FRANCISCO -- Let's get this out of the way: Yes, five weeks of a Major League Baseball season is a small sample size. But also remember that teams have been promoting and demoting dozens of players for weeks based on those small samples, because the talent evaluators are gauging what they expect the players to do. Because they believe that sometimes small samples become big samples of more of the same.
Roughly 20 percent of the season has been played, and some of the early-season trajectories are being established at record-challenging levels. When we say a player or a team is on pace to do something extraordinary, well, that almost always doesn't hold its course.
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