Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines

Big Ten Tuesday mailblog

June, 18, 2013
Jun 18
5:00
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To your emails ...

David from Chicago writes: I may be out of step with other fans, but I would like to see Iowa schedule a MAC team and a Sun Belt team every year as non-conference opponents, in addition to keeping Iowa State on the schedule. The ultimate goal is to go to the best bowl game as possible, and a guaranteed two (or three) non-conference wins are more important than strength of schedule. If Iowa can consistently go 5-4 to 7-2 in Big Ten play (optimistic but doable), this strategy should translate to seven to ten total wins and a solid bowl invite.

Adam Rittenberg: David, while I disagree with your philosophy, you make some valid points about nonconference games and strength of schedule. Now it's important to note that schedule strength will be a much bigger factor with the upcoming College Football Playoff, and if Iowa intends to ever make the Playoff, your scheduling model likely wouldn't get the job done. If you believe Iowa isn't a Playoff contender -- a pessimistic or realistic view, depends on who you ask -- your model likely would get the Hawkeyes to "better" bowls. But ask yourself: is being an Iowa football fan all about getting to the Outback Bowl or the Gator Bowl or the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl? Or is it about winning championships and playing exciting games?

Most Iowa fans want to see their team on the big stage playing big-deal teams -- not the MAC, the Sun Belt or even Iowa State. If Iowa really wants to elevate its national profile, which a lot of Hawkeyes fans desire, a different non-league scheduling model likely is in order.




Terry from Detroit writes: I know a national title would be ideal, but do you see programs like Wisconsin and Michigan State, if they can consistently put together solid bowl-winning teams, being able to leverage that success more so than if they were to win it all? (both in recruiting and respect) Look at Michigan State basketball, even though they havent won a title since 2000, they have consistently made it deep into the tournament with final 4's and conference championships. It seems as though they have gained this respect because of their consistency (although the 2000 title certainly helps)... could this apply to college football as well?

Adam Rittenberg: Terry, I love discussing program perception, so thanks for raising this interesting question. The Michigan State basketball model certainly is a reasonable goal for both Wisconsin and Michigan State, although Wisconsin is much closer to that level because of its Big Ten titles and Rose Bowl appearances in the past two decades. Michigan State hoops is seemingly always in contention for Big Ten titles, and Tom Izzo's reputation as a brilliant NCAA tournament coach, despite only one national championship, boosts the program's overall stock. You mention winning bowl games, and Michigan State has gotten over the hump the past two seasons, while Wisconsin has dropped three straight Rose Bowls after winning the Champs Sports Bowl in 2009. But both programs have had some consistent success, which matters in terms of perception.

Still, a national championship would fundamentally change the way both programs are viewed. It would show they had the talent and coaching to beat the best in college football, not merely compete with the very good. Neither team would want to fall off after one national title like Auburn has, and I can't deny that overall consistency, good bowl games and bowl wins matter in the long run. But a title would show that Wisconsin and Michigan State could rise from the ranks of the very good to the truly elite, a jump many think will never take place.




William from Spartanburg, S.C., writes: According to ESPN, the Big 12, has 4 teams in the top 25 average rank 15.25. B1G has 4 teams in the top 25, average rank 13.75. The Pac-12 doesn't even have a top 25 ranked team. ACC has 5 in the top 25. SEC has like 8. So yes the SEC and ACC are out recruiting us I can admit that. The Big 12 is close, but the Pac isn't even in the same neighborhood in recruiting as of right now, today. How do you support the article you wrote "Big Ten fourth in recruiting rankings?"

Adam Rittenberg: William, while I wrote the post you refer to, I didn't compile the conference rankings, which were done by our recruiting analysts Tom Luginbill and Craig Haubert. You bring up a good point about the current class rankings, but the league rankings were based on other factors as well. The Pac-12 has outperformed the Big Ten in recent national championships and BCS bowl wins, which contributed to its ranking. Luginbill and Haubert also specify in the post: "Conferences near the top include teams that have proved successful on the recruiting trail in the past." The Pac-12 boasts several of these teams in Oregon, Stanford and USC, and UCLA's recruiting efforts are on the upswing under coach Jim Mora. All that said, I think you can make a good case for the Big Ten's recruiting efforts being better than the Pac-12's at this early stage of the process. Northwestern is putting together a stellar class, and Nebraska is enjoying a strong recent recruiting surge. So it's not all about Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten right now.




Chris from Chicago writes: It seems like everyone predicts the season based on all the star players playing well and/or improving. Because they're impossible to predict, no one discusses the huge impact of injuries. So here's my question: what teams and/or positions are most susceptible and/or least susceptible to injuries in the B1G? I'm thinking Michigan is in trouble if Gardner gets hurt, and OSU/Nebraska would also struggle if Miller/Martinez went down, while Indiana/Northwestern wouldn't miss much since they have capable/experienced backup QBs, and Wisconsin has plenty of RB depth to survive injuries there ...

Adam Rittenberg: Chris, we addressed this topic recently with the most indispensable series. We made our picks for each team's most indispensable players, and Michigan's Devin Gardner, Ohio State's Braxton Miller and Nebraska's Taylor Martinez all made the list. We went with wide receiver Jared Abbrederis for Wisconsin rather than one of the running backs. We also asked fans to vote on the league's most indispensable offensive and defensive players. Ohio State LB Ryan Shazier edged Michigan State LB Max Bullough as the league's most indispensable defender, while Miller beat out both Martinez and Gardner as the most indispensable offensive player. Michigan's Gardner is my pick for the Big Ten's most indispensable player (offense or defense), as his absence could cost the Wolverines 3-4 games and possibly a Legends division title. Ohio State's Shazier also is in the conversation because of Ohio State's inexperience in the defensive front seven. Penn State also lacks depth in its linebacking corps and can't afford to lose a guy like Mike Hull.




Gregory from Kingsport, Tenn., writes: Adam--I still contend that the Cornhuskers downfall in football started when Perlman hired Pederson, then Pederson hired Callahan. All three tried to make it a Wall Street-like business atmosphere. They had no respect for the past culture of the program. Even Dr. Tom could not fix what they broke! The program is no longer respected and feared as it one was. I can not believe that the "real Husker Nation" has not ask for Harvey the rabbit to step down, and find some new young blood to go with the new AD. What do you think?

Adam Rittenberg: Gregory, while Perlman has made some mistakes in relation to the football program, I don't think you fire a university president based on an athletic director hiring decision from more than a decade ago. Although the Pederson and Callahan hires certainly contributed to Nebraska falling from the nation's elite, there have been other factors involved, namely the SEC's historic surge coupled with the change in recruiting demographics with more elite players coming from the South. It's simply harder for Nebraska to get the great players these days.

Nebraska also has had opportunities to elevate its program under Bo Pelini, but the Huskers keep falling short in league title games (Big 12 and Big Ten). I'm not sure what you mean by a "new young blood" to go along with AD Shawn Eichorst. Pelini is 42, which hardly makes him old among major-conference head coaches. Would you feel better if Nebraska hired Scott Frost?




Joshua from Louisiana writes: Hey Adam, I'm a huge Michigan fan, and I fully admit this following question may sound like me being a homer but...Would you say that its pretty clear that Brady Hoke can recruit with the "big dogs"? All I have heard for the past two years from ohio and SEC fans is that he cant keep pace with guys like Saban, Meyer, and Spurrier. I think its obvious he can, seeing as how the majority of recruiting rankings had the Wolverines 2013 class in the top 5 and the 2014 class is sitting pretty at number 1 on a few sites. He has brought in a swagger that RichRod didnt have and has signed top talent out from under OSU and most SEC teams noses. Some more insight on this would be great Adam.

Adam Rittenberg: I think it's pretty obvious that Brady Hoke and his staff can recruit with the nation's best. I've been impressed not only by the quality of recruits Michigan is bringing in, but the plan Hoke and his assistants have followed since his arrival. There's a crystal-clear vision at Michigan for what they want and who they want, and the coaches don't deviate from it when they're scouting prospects. They target players extremely early, which has contributed to the huge numbers of early commits they've had the past few years. It doesn't matter if Michigan signs the No. 1 class in February, and teams that pile up early commits tend to be penalized in the final rankings because they're not making a splash on signing day. It's clear Hoke has restored Michigan's recruiting to the top level. Although Michigan isn't located in the most fertile state for prospects, Hoke has done very well in Ohio and throughout the Midwest. The next step, and you're starting to see it, is branching out to the South and West to bring in elite prospects from those regions and cement Michigan's national recruiting brand.
Earlier today, Adam and I debated who will lead the Big Ten in receiving yards in 2013. Now, it's your turn to choose.

SportsNation

Who will lead the Big Ten in receiving yards in 2013?

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    26%
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    5%
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    36%
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    15%
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    18%

Discuss (Total votes: 4,934)

Here are five candidates:
  • Allen Robinson, Penn State: The obvious choice, as Robinson led the league by a wide margin last year with 77 catches and 1,013 yards as a sophomore. Can he maintain or improve upon those numbers, especially with an inexperienced quarterback at the controls for the Nittany Lions?
  • Cody Latimer, Indiana: My dark horse pick to unseat Robinson, Latimer has impressive size and hands and is coming off a year in which he caught 51 balls for 805 yards. The Hoosiers will throw the ball a whole lot, and Latimer could be ready to post some huge numbers as a result.
  • Kenny Bell, Nebraska: Adam's pick to dethrone Robinson, Bell had 863 yards receiving in 14 games last year. He was on pace to become the Huskers' first-ever 1,000-yard receiver before slowing down a bit toward the end of the season.
  • Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin: The senior posted 933 receiving yards in 2011 and had 837 last year despite battling injuries and a below-average Badgers passing game. He's the unquestioned No. 1 receiver on the team.
  • Jeremy Gallon, Michigan: He might only be 5-foot-8, but Gallon makes big plays for the Wolverines. He finished with 829 yards last season, and more than 500 of those came after Devin Gardner assumed the quarterback job. With a full year playing with Gardner, Gallon's stats could go way up.

Who do you think will lead the Big Ten in receiving yards? Vote now in our poll.

Big Ten lunch links

June, 18, 2013
Jun 18
12:00
PM ET
Former Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez is enjoying life in the wild, wild West.
Big Ten bloggers Adam Rittenberg and Brian Bennett will occasionally give their takes on a burning question facing the league. We'll both have strong opinions, but not necessarily the same view. We'll let you decide which blogger is right.

We're in the process of projecting the Big Ten's statistical leaders for the 2013 season. We've already offered our choices for the league's top rusher and top passer. So naturally, today's Take Two topic is: Who will lead the Big Ten in receiving yards this year?

Take 1: Brian Bennett

Perhaps a better question might be, who will finish second in receiving yards to Penn State's Allen Robinson? The Nittany Lions junior was clearly the best wide receiver in a league that lacked stars at the position in 2013. Robinson's 1,013 yards were more than 200 yards better than the next closest competitor, and his 77 catches were nine more than any other Big Ten player. He should only improve in his second year as a full-time starter.

[+] EnlargeCody Latimer
Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY SportsReceiver Cody Latimer should have a productive season in Indiana's pass-oriented system.
The only reasons to believe Robinson won't repeat as the receiving yards leader would include the inexperience at quarterback for Penn State this season, increased defensive attention after his breakout year and/or a major improvement by a fellow league wideout. Let's examine that last factor for some possibilities. There are several players who I think could make a leap up this year and post big numbers. Start with Wisconsin's Jared Abbrederis, who could easily surpass 1,000 yards receiving if he stays healthy and the Badgers' passing game shows more competency than a year ago. Nebraska's Kenny Bell has the talent and opportunity to become the Huskers' first 1,000-yard receiver ever. Ohio State's Corey Brown should thrive as Braxton Miller's No. 1 target, and Michigan's Jeremy Gallon will love being the go-to guy for Devin Gardner over a full season.

My choice to dethrone Robinson, though, is Indiana's Cody Latimer. He caught 51 passes for 805 yards a year ago and should benefit from working with more experienced quarterbacks in 2013. While he has competition for catches on his own team with Shane Wynn, Kofi Hughes and others, Latimer is the team's top big-play threat and has a great set of hands. If the pass-happy Hoosiers can get to a 13th game, he has a chance to finish with some eye-popping numbers.

I'm still picking Robinson as the receiving yards king. But should he falter, I say Latimer is the guy who picks up the crown.

Take 2: Adam Rittenberg

If this was about naming the Big Ten's best wide receiver, Robinson would get my vote. He also could repeat as receiving yards leader, but I'm hesitant to make that prediction without seeing Penn State quarterbacks Tyler Ferguson and Christian Hackenberg compete against FBS defenses. Robinson and Matt McGloin fed off of one another extremely well last season, particularly in the red zone, and Bill O'Brien's NFL-style offense provided the platform for both to flourish. O'Brien is still there and either Ferguson or Hackenberg could follow McGloin's path in Year 1 of running the system, but neither man has been in the fire like McGloin was before last season.

Latimer is a good pick as I love his size and big-play ability. Indiana isn't afraid to throw the football so Latimer should have plenty of chances to rack up yards. The thing working against him, as you outline, is the Hoosiers' overall depth at receiver, plus tight end Ted Bolser. Abbrederis likely would be my pick if Wisconsin's passing game hadn't struggled so much in 2012. He'll enter his senior season as Wisconsin's only legitimate threat at wide receiver, which might help his numbers (more opportunities) or limit him (more attention from opposing defensive backs). Ultimately, Wisconsin's run-first approach will prevent Abbrederis from leading the league in receiving yards.

I had Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez as the Big Ten's leading passer, and I'm sticking with Big Red for this pick and going with Kenny Bell. His production dropped off a bit toward the end of last season, but I really liked what I saw during the first seven games. Another offseason in the program should help Bell, who brings explosiveness to an offense that loves to stretch the field in the passing game. Although Nebraska has other weapons at wideout in Jamal Turner and Quincy Enunwa, the Huskers lose their top tight ends and should feature a guy like Bell more this fall as Martinez continues his evolution as a passer.

Several names could appear atop the Big Ten's receiving yards chart this fall and not surprise me. Let's also remember that no one pegged Robinson to lead the league in 2012, so a player could come out of relative obscurity to finish No. 1. But right now, Bell gets my vote.

Big Ten Monday mailbag

June, 17, 2013
Jun 17
5:00
PM ET
I like the way you work it. I got to 'bag it up.

A.J. from Ann Arbor, Mich., writes: Hey Brian, this is a question regarding the B1G and the SEC. Could part of the reason it's been so hard for the B1G to stay competitive on a national level with the SEC be weather? For instance, it wouldn't be ridiculous to think that recruits would want to choose a school where you almost always play in sunny and warm conditions, and could prevent recruits from wanting to be in the Midwest. Even lower tier SEC schools like Tennessee or Ole Miss continue to get highly-ranked players. Wisconsin has just as much tradition as those schools, and has even been better in the past few years, yet they never get some of the top recruits. Frankly, we see a lot of crummy overcast in the Midwest, and could a national contender like OSU or Michigan be more likely to be upset when the weather is not helping motivate the team? This could be ridiculous, but could this be another reason the B1G may never catch up with the SEC?

Brian Bennett: It's naive to think that weather doesn't play some factor. Big Ten teams always have to worry that it's going to be freezing cold or snowing when recruits -- especially those from the South -- come to campus on official visits. Weather certainly has played some role in the shifting demographics in this country toward the Sun Belt. And players can more easily train year-round outside when it's warm. So it's definitely something the league has to overcome. I still believe the biggest obstacle is simple geography; there are more big-time recruits in the South, and they're more likely to play their college ball close to home. Weather definitely can be a negative for the Big Ten at times, but it's not the only reason the league has fallen a step behind the SEC.




Bratwurst from Milwaukee writes: Rank your top 3 games including at least one B1G team that could appear on College Gameday. Conference or non-conference matchups?

Brian Bennett: Mmm ... bratwurst. Sorry, lost my train of thought there for a moment. We ran a poll last week on the most important Big Ten game, and not surprisingly, Ohio State at Michigan won out. That's always going to be huge, and if the Buckeyes are undefeated and Michigan is having a great season, it could very well be a "GameDay" selection. My top three would also include Nebraska at Michigan on Nov. 9 and Wisconsin at Ohio State on Sept. 28. Those two games could decide the division championships and should have great atmospheres, with or without Chris, Lee, Kirk, Desmond and the gang.




Alex G. from Ames, Iowa, writes: All this 9-game B1G schedule talk has me nervous about the Iowa-Iowa State rivalry game. I know in Friday's mailbag with Adam there was talk of VT / other major conferences filling in every two years or so, but I don't see how that will go down with fans in Iowa. Maybe the Cyclones and Hawkeyes will always be "middle-tier" teams on each team's schedule, but that's not what matters. Unless you live in the state of Iowa, you truly don't know how important this game is (this is coming from a born Hawkeye fan attending Iowa State). Do you truly see the Hawkeyes booting the Cyclones in favor of a SOS booster?

Brian Bennett: I'm a huge proponent of in-state rivalries and would hate to see Iowa-Iowa State lose its annual status. I think that series is good for the entire state and both programs. In the end, I think it comes down to what type of program Iowa sees itself as. Do the Hawkeyes view themselves as a team that can make mid- to upper-tier bowls on an annual basis and compete for the Big Ten title in most years? Or does Iowa truly see itself as a national title contender? If it's the latter, then upgrading the schedule is truly a must, whether that means adding another marquee opponent besides Iowa State or replacing the Cyclones with a big-name opponent in certain years. If keeping seven home games and just getting to bowls is the objective, then playing Iowa State and two mediocre teams is fine. I'd love to see Iowa challenge itself with Iowa State and another brand-name opponent, but I also understand the difficulty of doing so with a nine-game Big Ten schedule.




Mark from Arizona writes: I am so disappointed. How can you not put Mark Weisman in your top 5 running backs to lead the conference? He was impressive when he was healthy. He's a beast. Iowa may have some questions with quarterbacks, receivers, and defensive lineman, but not with running backs and an experienced and healthy offensive line. You gotta be crazy not to consider Weisman and Iowa's rushing game top 3 in the conference.

Brian Bennett: Mark, in case you missed it, I recently ranked Weisman No. 4 on our list of guys who could become new members of the 1,000-yard club in 2013. But that was in addition to five returning players who ran for more than 1,000 last year. It's not that I don't think highly of Weisman; it's just that he has a lot of competition in a league filled with really good running backs and talented running quarterbacks. Weisman had some big games last year but finished with just 815 yards. Granted, he was banged up for parts of the year and wasn't given a full load of carries early on. Still, Iowa has other options at tailback, including Damon Bullock and Jordan Canzeri, so there's no guarantee he'll get the full bulk of rushing attempts. And his physical style could make it difficult for him to stay healthy an entire year. I like his chances of getting to 1,000 yards, but it's probably going to take at least 1,600 yards to lead the league. I don't see Weisman getting that high.




Matt from Midway, N.C., writes: Brian, why is it that Brady Hoke is given several years to have his roster in place to succeed in his system, when Urban Meyer seems to already have the pieces he desires? Both coaches have come in running a different scheme than their predecessor. Did Rich Rod destroy TTUN that much or is Urban Meyer just that good?

Brian Bennett: I guess you've already forgotten the 2011 season, when Hoke led Michigan to an 11-2 record and a Sugar Bowl title. So both guys had great first years at their schools. The big difference when it comes to implementing systems is that Meyer -- while he lacked the athletes he wanted at receiver -- had the perfect guy to run his spread in Braxton Miller, while Hoke inherited a running quarterback when he wanted to use a pro-style passing game. And Ohio State still had plenty of talent and future NFL draft picks on the roster, while Michigan's overall talent level had noticeably dipped under Rodriguez.




Jay from Arlington writes: I wouldn't but Penn State very far behind Alabama if I were you. The two games they played recently were far closer than most of the simpletons in the media believe them to be and on a neutral field, the 2012 Big Ten champion Nittany Lions (The only rightfully undefeated team in league play) would have taken Bama to the wire. Once they got going, they were easily the best team in the Big Ten last year despite playing against a stacked deck all year long. Penn State will challenge the likes of Alabama before any other Big Ten team will.

Brian Bennett: I admire your optimism.

Big Ten lunchtime links

June, 17, 2013
Jun 17
12:00
PM ET
Had a good weekend. Went bird hunting with Ken Cosgrove.
Earlier today, Adam and I debated who would lead the league in passing yards in 2013. Now, it's your turn to decide.

SportsNation

Who will lead the Big Ten in passing yards in 2013?

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    32%
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    30%
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    15%
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    9%
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    14%

Discuss (Total votes: 7,798)

Here are five candidates to win the passing title:
  • Taylor Martinez, Nebraska: Adam's choice to lead the league in passing yards, Martinez has improved greatly as a thrower and finished second in the Big Ten last season in total passing yards with 2,871. He's also got a deep group of receivers to work with in the Huskers' explosive offense.
  • Devin Gardner, Michigan: My pick as the passing champion, Gardner averaged more than 240 yards passing per game last year after taking over for Denard Robinson. That projects to more than 3,000 yards over a 13-game season. Plus, the Wolverines should throw more as they move to a full-fledged pro-style attack.
  • Braxton Miller, Ohio State: Miller threw for just 2,039 yards last year but has worked hard on his mechanics this offseason, and the Buckeyes want to throw the ball downfield more this season. The receiving corps is still a bit thin, but don't bet against Miller's talent.
  • Indiana's starter: Cameron Coffman passed for 248.5 yards per game last year, tops among all returning Big Ten quarterbacks. And the Hoosiers led the league in passing yards. The complication is that there's a three-man QB race between Coffman, Nate Sudfeld and Tre Roberson. If one emerges as the clear-cut front-runner, he could put up some prolific numbers.
  • Penn State's starter: If Bill O'Brien can turn Matt McGloin into a 3,000-yard passer, what can he do with Tyler Ferguson and Christian Hackenberg? If only we knew which one of those guys would take the majority of the snaps. One thing is for sure: Whoever starts will benefit greatly from throwing to the league's best receiver (Allen Robinson) and a deep and talented group of tight ends.

Who's your pick to lead the Big Ten in passing? Vote now in our poll.

Big Ten lunchtime links

June, 14, 2013
Jun 14
12:00
PM ET
On this day, 224 years ago, the Rev. Elijah Craig did something wonderful.

Video: Michigan Wolverines X factor

June, 14, 2013
Jun 14
10:30
AM ET
video
Michigan's X factor in 2013: Defensive end Frank Clark.
Big Ten bloggers Adam Rittenberg and Brian Bennett will occasionally give their takes on a burning question facing the league. We'll both have strong opinions, but not necessarily the same view. We'll let you decide which blogger is right.

We're in the process of projecting the Big Ten's statistical leaders for the 2013 season. After forecasting the league's top rusher, today's Take Two topic is: Who will lead the Big Ten in passing this year?

Take 1: Adam Rittenberg

The Big Ten hasn't been loaded with premier passers and loses its only 3,000-yard performer from 2012 in Penn State's Matt McGloin. Although the league's next three top passers return, two of them, Indiana's Cameron Coffman and Michigan State's Andrew Maxwell, are fighting to retain their starting jobs for the season. Although there's no shortage of quarterbacks with starting experience or significant playing time around the league, few have shown the ability to consistently put up big passing totals.

[+] EnlargeTaylor Martinez
AP Photo/Nati HarnikNebraska's Taylor Martinez passed for 2,871 yards and 23 touchdowns last season.
My pick comes down to three quarterbacks: Michigan's Devin Gardner, Nebraska's Taylor Martinez and Ohio State's Braxton Miller. If I knew Indiana's or Penn State's starting quarterback, I might include them in the race because of those teams' strength at wide receiver and tight end. But that's too risky right now. Gardner started just five games for Michigan, but averaged 243.8 pass yards in those contests. His numbers could go up as Michigan moves away from the spread and into a pro-style system. Gardner had a strong spring, and Michigan wants to keep him in the pocket more often than not. Miller also should up bigger passing totals as he enters his second year in Ohio State's offense and should have more help at the wide receiver spot. He's such a talented runner, but the Buckeyes don't want to take too many chances with his health, and the coaches see good potential for his growth as a passer.

Gardner and Miller are solid choices, but I'm going with Martinez here. His passing numbers soared from 2011 to 2012, as he completed nearly 6 percent more passes, nearly 800 more yards and threw 10 more touchdowns. He's fully comfortable with the offense under coordinator Tim Beck and should enter the season at 100 percent, health-wise. Nebraska also returns top wide receivers Kenny Bell, Quincy Enunwa and Jamal Turner. The Huskers need some help at tight end but have recruited well at tight end and have warmed up more and more to the pass under Beck. Martinez will finish his career with every significant Nebraska passing record, and he'll also top the Big Ten's passing yards chart as a senior.

Take 2: Brian Bennett

If I were confident Indiana would go with one quarterback all season, my pick would be the Hoosiers' starter. Don't forget that Coffman is the leading returning passer in the league (in terms of yards per game), or that IU led the conference in passing yards this season. But I suspect Kevin Wilson will end up juggling quarterbacks and using some combination of Coffman, Nate Sudfeld and Tre Roberson. Can I say my choice is Cam Roberfeld?

I guess not. So I'll go with the next best option: Michigan's Devin Gardner. As Adam mentioned, Gardner posted big passing numbers last year after taking over for Denard Robinson down the stretch, and that was without a lot of practice during the year at quarterback (he split time there and at receiver). By all accounts, Gardner has had a fantastic offseason, and Al Borges must be foaming at the mouth at the prospect of finally unleashing a true pro-style offense.

Gardner's five-game numbers last year project to more than 3,000 yards passing over a full 13-game season. I don't know if he'll get all the way there, and losing veteran receiver Roy Roundtree doesn't help. But he's still got big-play man Jeremy Gallon to target, as well as promising young receivers Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson, plus talented tight end Devin Funchess. Gardner completed 59.5 percent of his passes last year, a rate I expect to go way up with a full offseason as the starting quarterback under his belt. Michigan will look to run the ball a lot as well. But the Wolverines won't have to accommodate the talents of Robinson, and Gardner won't run as much as Nebraska's Martinez.

Plus, Michigan doesn't have any other experienced options, so Gardner will likely take just about every snap. That makes him a safe pick to lead the league in passing yards.

Big Ten Thursday mailbag

June, 13, 2013
Jun 13
5:00
PM ET
As Kanye West says, all I want is dopeness. Bring it.

Denard R. from Columbus, Ohio: Brian, what do you think the chances are two BIG teams make it to a BCS game, and should they win one or both how much would that improve the perception of the conference?

Brian Bennett: Denard, what the heck are you doing in Columbus? I would say the chances of getting two teams into a BCS game are actually quite good. Remember, that was a regular occurrence until last season; the Big Ten had received an at-large BCS bid for seven consecutive seasons before 2012, and that was an odd year where both Ohio State and Penn State were ineligible and teams like Wisconsin and Michigan underperformed. Getting the Buckeyes eligible again helps a great deal. The second BCS bid could go to a team that does not make the Big Ten championship game, a la Michigan in 2011, because losing in the title game often hurts a team's cause. Wisconsin, if it finishes second to Ohio State but manages to run roughshod over the rest of its manageable schedule, is a strong possibility, along with whoever finishes second in the Legends Division.

As for perception, winning two BCS games would obviously be big for the Big Ten, which needs all the help it can generate for itself in that department. The league needs to get back to winning Rose Bowls. In theory, perception shouldn't matter as much with the four-team playoff beginning next year since a committee should only look at that year's body of work. But in reality, perception likely still will play a role as selectors try to determine strength-of-schedule and conference power factors.




Bryan from Chicago writes: I saw your article on the B1G APR scores this week. This was great to see coming off of the article I read about Alabama's APR score last week. I was curious if you could do a comparison of B1G to the SEC APR scores. The leagues are so often compared on the field where SEC has left the B1G in the dust, it would be interesting to see how the fair against each other in the classroom.

Brian Bennett: Sure thing. You can find the Big Ten scores in that post from Tuesday. Here are those from the SEC (Note: Missouri and Texas A&M are not included because they weren't part of the league during the scoring period):

Alabama: 978
Vanderbilt: 973
Florida: 968
Georgia: 968
Mississippi State: 967
South Carolina: 966
Auburn: 950
LSU: 944
Mississippi: 944
Kentucky: 943
Arkansas: 938
Tennessee: 924

The SEC's league average was 955.3, compared to 966.2 for the Big Ten, which was the highest among the power conferences. Six SEC teams ranked below the Big Ten's lowest team (Michigan, at 951), and Tennessee scored under the 925 cutoff. The Big Ten's top three teams -- Northwestern, Wisconsin and Ohio State -- were all better than Alabama.




Brian from Portland, Ore., writes: In regards to your post about APR scores, wondering what Penn State's score would've been had it not been for the transfers directly tied to the NCAA sanctions? Just another "unintended" outcome from the sanctions that fly directly in the face of the "culture change" that the NCAA was supposedly trying to facilitate through these sanctions.

Brian Bennett: Brian (great name and proper spelling), the most recent APR scores are four-year averages that go through the 2011-12 school year, so the transfers from last summer were not counted in Penn State's stats. They will start to be reflected in next year's APR. That will be another thing the Nittany Lions have to worry about, although the NCAA does take into account transfers who leave in good academic standing. You would have to think the great minds in Indianapolis will grant exemptions for Penn State on the transfer issue, because that would be like double jeopardy if the school was penalized in the APR for that.




They call themselves Ohio from Michigan writes: You didn't really answer the question in your mailbag from Farmington Hills about OSU beating UMich twice. What do you really believe the odds are for OSU to beat Michigan twice in consecutive weeks; once in Ann Arbor (where Hoke has not lost) and the other at a neutral site? In my least biased, most purely historical-and-mathematical-fact-based mind, I give them no better than 1 chance in 4. Too many factors stacking against them. Meyer's got a capable team with a remarkable guy at the helm, but you can't ignore history, and historically the loser of game one has won the majority of rematches (at least through 2012, haven't checked last season).

Brian Bennett: It's awfully tough to predict what's going to happen in Game 12 and Game 13 when we're in June. Who knows how the season plays out? I agree that it would be very difficult for Ohio State to pull off those back-to-back wins, but if the Buckeyes are good enough to win in Ann Arbor, I would think their chances of winning the following week at a neutral site would improve. I did some research on rematches when Michigan State and Wisconsin played in the 2011 Big Ten title game. At that time, the team that won the regular-season meeting was 14-8 in the title game rematch. Of course, Wisconsin reversed the trend that year and again last year by beating Nebraska, though those weren't consecutive-week games. The most analogous example was last year's Pac-12 title game between Stanford and UCLA, in which the Cardinal beat the Bruins twice in seven days to claim the championship. So it can be done.




@jearly76 from Twitter writes: Jerry Kill's teams have always made big jumps in year 3. Any chance of that happening with Minnesota or is there not enough talent?

Brian Bennett: I think it's very possible this year. I like the vibe coming out of Minneapolis this year. The Gophers sound pretty confident that they will make a major leap forward. Last year's team made a bowl game but really wasn't very good in the second half of the regular season, thanks mostly to injuries. The bowl game performance against Texas Tech was a revelation. I think Minnesota will definitely be a better team this year and will prove a tough out most weeks in the Big Ten, with the potential to pull off a few upsets. The problem is that the Legends Division is loaded, so it's going to be hard to move up too far.




Andy Gress via Twitter writes: The Huskers have a good shot at being undefeated going into November, what do you think their record will be coming out of it?

Brian Bennett: Unless Minnesota is able to really jump up and pull off the upset at home on Oct. 26, the only game I can see Nebraska losing before the Nov. 2 showdown against Northwestern is in Week 3 versus UCLA. And that game is at Memorial Stadium, with some nice revenge motivation going for the Huskers. I think Nebraska will be 7-0 and 6-1 at worst. Then the real fun begins.




Chris from Chicago writes: We talk a lot about the "best WRs/TEs" in terms of catching the ball or "best RBs" in terms of running, but never look at the other roles of those positions. For example, who are the best run-blocking wide receivers/TEs in the B1G? Who are the best receiving/pass blocking RBs in the B1G? What O-lines are best built to run-block vs. pass block? I'd love to see you break down units by the "secondary" yet important things they're required to do....

Brian Bennett: Some great points, Chris. It's much easier to look at the receiving/rushing numbers because those are simpler to quantify through statistics. Judging who is really a great blocker requires a lot more film study and intricate knowledge of what a team is trying to do. I do know that Nebraska's receivers deserve a ton of credit for their blocking in the run game; that has been an underrated aspect of how good the Huskers' running game has been. Same could be said of Wisconsin's tight ends and Northwestern's receivers. As good as Montee Ball was in 2011, he missed a few key blocks in pass protection before he shored that part of his game up. That's something we'll keep in mind while evaluating those positions down the road.

Big Ten lunch links

June, 13, 2013
Jun 13
12:00
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The Derecho is gone, and the Blackhawks are three games from the Cup. Good times.
Big Ten bloggers Adam Rittenberg and Brian Bennett will occasionally give their takes on a burning question facing the league. We'll both have strong opinions, but not necessarily the same view. We'll let you decide which blogger is right.

In the coming days, we'll make our predictions on the Big Ten's statistical leaders in 2013. Today's Take Two topic is: Who will lead the Big Ten in rushing this season?

Take 1: Adam Rittenberg

The Big Ten loses its top three rushers from 2012 -- Montee Ball, Le'Veon Bell and Denard Robinson -- but returns the next seven best ground gainers. That group of seven includes two pairs of teammates in Ohio State's Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde and Nebraska's Taylor Martinez and Ameer Abdullah. Although any of the four could lead the league in rushing, it's possible that they'll cancel each other out and take away the carries needed to top the chart. Northwestern's Venric Mark also is in the mix, but like the others, he shares carries with a quarterback (Kain Colter) and should have a deeper group of running backs around him this fall. Penn State's Zach Zwinak hit the 1,000-yard mark in 2012, but he'll be pushed for carries by Bill Belton and dynamic redshirt freshman Akeel Lynch.

[+] EnlargeCarlos Hyde
Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesThe power of RB Carlos Hyde is expected to be put to the test often for Ohio State in 2013.
Wisconsin has a similar situation with its run game as James White and Melvin Gordon will enter the season as 1a and 1b. Of the two, Gordon projects a little bit better as a true featured back, but White is a talented senior who should be a big part of the mix as well. Iowa's Mark Weisman is part of the discussion, too, as he showed the ability to put up monster numbers when healthy in 2012, even for a bad offense. Michigan is on the lookout for a featured back, and while the Wolverines have some question marks along the offensive line, Fitzgerald Toussaint or Derrick Green could be a good wild-card pick.

Bottom line: this isn't an easy decision. Ultimately, I'm going with the guy running behind the league's best offensive line at Ohio State. Hyde will emerge as the Big Ten's leading rusher, edging out Mark, Gordon and Weisman for the title. Ohio State will rely less on Miller to carry the rushing load and use a more traditional power attack behind Hyde, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry and scored 16 touchdowns in only 10 games last fall. Hyde has the power-size combination to thrive as a featured back, and he should get a bigger carries load as a senior, not just in the red zone but everywhere on the field.

Take 2: Brian Bennett

The race for the rushing title should shape up as the most exciting individual battle in the Big Ten this season. The league always produces great runners, and as Adam noted, many of the top ball carriers are back in 2013. In fact, some of the best competitions for rushing yards will happen in the same backfields, as several teams are capable of fielding two 1,000-yard rushers this season.

Hyde is a good choice, especially if he can replicate what he did down the stretch last year for a full season. But Braxton Miller will still run the ball a lot, too, and Ohio State also has the improving Rod Smith, youngsters Warren Ball and Bri'onte Dunn, plus Jordan Hall and possibly Dontre Wilson. That's a lot of studs who need to be fed.

I'm tempted to take one of the Wisconsin backs, because you can never really go wrong there. But I can envision a scenario where both White and Gordon both put up over 1,000 yards but neither leads the league. Instead, I'm going to go out on an ever-so-slight limb and predict that Nebraska's Abdullah finishes as the Big Ten rushing champ.

Abdullah ran for 1,137 yards last year, and he began the season as Rex Burkhead's backup. He also split carries when Burkhead returned from a knee injury late in the season. Abdullah improved greatly from his freshman to his sophomore year and should be even better as a junior. Though Martinez will take his share of carries, Abdullah really only has one other player -- Imani Cross -- to split time with. The Huskers' offense plays at a fast pace and should get lots of snaps, especially against a pretty soft early schedule. Defenses also can't key on Abdullah because of the presence of Martinez and a talented receiving corps.

Abdullah received 226 carries in 14 games last year, an average of just 16 per game. Assuming he's fully healed from a minor spring knee injury, I could easily see him averaging more like 20-to-22 carries per contest in 2013. If he can improve his five yards per carry average from 2012, Abdullah should make a run at over 1,500 yards and possibly bring the rushing title home to Lincoln.
This week, we asked you to pick the nonconference opponent you'd most like to see your favorite team play in the near future. You could pick a team already on the upcoming schedule or one that inexplicably hasn't been added.

The response, not surprisingly, has been strong. If you haven't done so already, please send us your picks here and here, and be sure to identify your Big Ten allegiance and why you're picking a certain nonconference foe.

Michigan's nonconference scheduling is gradually taking shape, and Wolverines fans are weighing in on who they would like to see take on the Maize and Blue.

Corn from Commerce, Mich.: Two teams that I've always wanted my Michigan Wolverines play are LSU and Stanford. I think LSU would be an interesting game because they are both storied programs and both teams have excellent coaches. Also, it would be interesting since Les Miles coached and played at Michigan. I think Stanford would be good for Michigan to play as well. They are both academic juggernauts and both play hard-nosed stout football. It would also expose Michigan to recruits on the West Coast. I think both programs with their recent success would be great opponents for Michigan to play.

Vince from New York City: Michigan alum here in NYC. While it might be exciting to have a home-and-home with other historical powers such as Texas and LSU, Michigan football is about tradition. By that I mean I would love to simply continue the series with Notre Dame after 2014. These two teams are arguably the two most storied teams in the sport of American football, and it's only natural to have the annual matchup between them. The series is suspended from 2015-17 and 2018-19 was already a scheduled break, so I am looking forward when the rivalry renews in 2020. By the way, if everything goes out as planned (especially with the incredible recruiting Hoke has done), Michigan will probably meet the likes of USC or Stanford on a New Years Day in the near future.

WolverineMarine from MCAS in Miramar, Calif.: In response to your question about OOC games, I would like to suggest Michigan-Oklahoma AND Michigan State-Oklahoma State. I am in the Marines and stationed out in San Diego, I recently spent 11 days on a trip to Moore, Oklahoma (just north of Norman), to assist in the tornado relief. While there I wore a lot of my Michigan gear and always had great conversations with the Sooners fans. It got me thinking about how cool it would be if these two Midwest powerhouses could play. While you are at it you could turn it into a sort of state rivalry thing and have the two up and coming little brother schools play as well. It could be its own event. Hold one game in B1G territory and the other in XII at neutral sites.. Have one game Friday night to open the season, and the other the next day.

Jeff from Jacksonville, N.C.: I'd love to see Michigan play Florida State ..... At Doak Campbell Stadium. Two great programs, and two great traditions-the winged helmet and the "tomahawk chop." This would make for a great college football experience and is what fall Saturdays should be more like!

Josh from Ann Arbor, Mich.: Michigan fan here, I would love to get some teams from the south outside of their comfort zone and into a November game at Michigan stadium. I think LSU would be great (with the Les Miles/Michigan connection story line). If we're looking west, would love to take on USC to hopefully redeem the many Rose Bowl losses they handed to us in the early/mid 2000s.

Les from Bloomfield Hills, Mich., writes: I'm a Michigan alum, and would love to see a home and home with Texas. It'd be an interesting matchup, and the possible revenge factor for the Vince Young Texas team beating UM in the Rose Bowl at the last second is huge!

Darnell from Ann Arbor, Mich.: Adam, I'm going to go ahead and throw in Arizona out there as a OOC game I think a great deal of us want to see. Can you imagine the crowd erupting in contempt towards Rich Rod as he runs into the Big House? I think a great deal of fans would take a trip to the desert to see the Wildcats get crushed at home, too!

Justin from Oxford, Ohio: Since Notre Lame is "chickening" out of the series with Michigan, I'd like to see another team take their place as a long standing nonconference series with Michigan. The PAC-12 and the SEC i would like to see saved for the post-season except for maybe Florida for recruiting reasons. Florida State might be interseting but i'm not sure they have the national pull that would get the networks salivating. In my opinion, a series with Texas would be amazing for Michigan on all sorts of levels. It would give us a nationally televised nonconference game every year, it would help tremendously with recruiting the state of Texas which produce high quality players every year and it would give us a great SOS for the upcoming playoff. The rich traditions of both programs being first and second most winningest programs in the FBS would give this a bit of historic weight. I don't know how willing Texas would be to agreeing to this series but I can see nothing but positives for Michigan.

Ryan from Lansing, Mich.: I am a Michigan Alum and have grown up hating USC for the trouble they have given us in the Rose Bowl. I would liek to see them come to Michigan in November and play in the cold, instead of their backyard. I would personally like to see any SEC team take a trip up to the cold Midwest and take on the Big Ten on their home turf. Alabama did it with Penn State a few years ago, so the rest of the conference should imitate their reigning champ and brave the cold (even if it is a brisk 55 degrees in September sometimes).

Some great suggestions from Michigan backers. Although I'd like to see the Notre Dame series resume at some point, it would be nice to see Michigan, a true national brand, extend itself into other regions of the country. LSU, Texas, USC and Florida State all would be good non-conference opponents for the Wolverines when the Notre Dame series ends. Of those four, give me LSU, because it means we'd all get a good dose of Les Miles, the most entertaining and unpredictable coach in the country.

Darnell, as a reporter, I'd love to see Michigan and RichRod reunite, but I wonder how much benefit there would be for the Wolverines. Michigan would be expected to win, and a loss to Rodriguez would be huge for him and pretty damaging for Brady Hoke and Co. Still, if the game happened, I wouldn't complain.

More fan non-league picks:

Recruiting is the lifeblood of every program in the country, and every conference has its own strengths and weaknesses when it comes to landing top prospects. In the start of a weeklong series, we'll examine the BCS conferences plus Notre Dame to find each's strength, the biggest obstacle each faces and the overall view of the conference. First up: the Big Ten.

Biggest obstacle: There are two problems: perception and a limited talent pool. The consensus top states in the nation for talent are Florida, Texas, California and Georgia, and unfortunately for the Big Ten, none of them is in the Midwest. Talent can be found within the states in the Big Ten's footprint, but a good deal of work on the recruiting trail within this conference needs to be done outside of its base. For the 2013 class, only roughly 57 percent of the players signed by Big Ten teams came from the states that house Big Ten programs, and many of those came out of Ohio. By comparison, roughly 71 percent of the prospects signed by Pac-12 schools for 2013 came from within its own states, and in the SEC, that number was closer to 85 percent. Granted, California supplied the majority of the talent signed by the Pac-12 teams -- and the Golden State is big enough to supply an entire conference -- but the Big Ten lacks any one particular state that can act as a key feeder for an entire conference, like California for the Pac-12 or Texas for the Big 12. It's a problem because the farther these Big Ten teams have to stray from their base for talent, the tougher it is for it to lure prospects from competing programs that might be closer to home.

Besides having to often cast a wider net for talent than most of its BCS counterparts, the conference has also battled some perception problems about its ability to compete at the elite level nationally. Only one program, Ohio State, has won or even been to a BCS title game, and its past two appearances saw the Buckeyes come out on the losing end. Beyond the national title game, the conference has struggled in recent years to come out on the winning end of bowl games, in particular New Year's Day bowls. Coming up short on the national stage against rival conferences have left a dent in the perception of the Big Ten, which can create an obstacle in the ever-competitive arena of recruiting when battling for top talent.

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